Bigwigs keen to use new voters to anchor their presidential bids have been dealt a blow as the polls agency is set to miss its voter registration target by a big margin.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is expected to release the final number of new voters netted in the four-week mass voter registration drive that ends tomorrow.
According to figures released by the commission by the end of the third week, only a paltry 800,462 new voters had been listed against a total target of about six million.
President Uhuru Kenyatta's Mount Kenya backyard was among the worst-performing regions, with analysts predicting that similar apathy could be witnessed on election day.
Apathy, lack of ID cards and apparent lack of motivation, especially among the youth, have been blamed for the low turnout.
With only two days to the end of the voter registration exercise, the latest figures show that the IEBC is set to miss its target by a huge margin.
As of the end of Sunday, the commission had netted 1.14 million new voters out of a total target of about six million.
"Today, cumulative results show a figure of 1,144,994 registered voters while transfers cumulative figure is 255,296," IEBC acting CEO Marjan Hussein said.
Hussein disclosed to the Star that the commission has not witnessed a surge in the numbers even in the final days of the four-week mass voter registration drive that ends on Tuesday.
"Incrementally, there has been an insignificant increase in the number of newly registered voters averaging 35,000 for the last three days."
Hussein projected the drive is likely to close with a figure of slightly above 1.2 million new voters.
Apathy, lack of motivation and lack of IDs have been cited as the possible causes of the low turnout.
"The message of the Commission to eligible citizens, especially the youth, is that they should not let this chance go to waste as a meaningful change in this country can only happen if they register as voters and also to exercise their democratic rights come August 9, 2022," he said.
However, going by the trend posted in the first three weeks, the commission would likely miss the target by a huge margin. This means that the total number of registered voters in the upcoming polls would remain largely the same as those in the 2017 election.
In 2017, 19.61 million people were captured as registered voters.
Nairobi had the highest number of voters at 2.25 million, followed by Kiambu at 1.18 million and Nakuru at 949,618. However, due to national attrition such as death, the numbers could have reduced over the period.
This heralds a big setback for political heavyweights seeking to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta in August next year. They include Deputy President William Ruto, ODM boss Raila Odinga, ANC leader Raila Odinga and Wiper boss Kalonzo Musyoka.
The leaders have been traversing the country, urging Kenyans who are yet to be listed as voters to take advantage of the window.
They were banking on first-time voters as their launching pad for the country’s top seat as others say they would use the enhanced numbers for political negotiations.
“I appeal to Western Kenya to register as voters. If those who qualify register and support my candidature, don’t you think I will be the next president?” Mudavadi said early last month.
Mudavadi, who is a principal in the One Kenya Alliance, said the number of registered voters in his backyard would determine his chances of flying the coalition’s flag.
“The formula of picking a candidate in Oka is in numbers. If you want me to have a say in the coalition, I must have the numbers,” he said.
“If you stay at home and say Musalia should be picked as the candidate, it will not be possible."
Western counties are some of the areas with large populations but fewer registered voters.
In Kakamega, for instance, there are 1.86 million people, according to the 2019 census. But only 743,736 people were registered as voters in 2017.
On Sunday, Mudavadi appealed to MPs to allocate more funds to the IEBC to enable it to extend the registration period to register as many eligible people as possible.
“The IEBC is complaining that it doesn’t have enough money to register voters and the month is ending. I want to appear to the National Assembly to set aside more money so that the IEBC can get enough to register Kenyans,” he said at church service in Thika, Kiambu county.
On October 8, Raila had to retreat to his Nyanza backyard to encourage residents to register in large numbers to propel his chances of ascending to the country’s top seat.
He decried the low numbers, signifying the importance of the registration to his ambition.
“I had promised to declare my candidature by the end of this month. However, this will be determined by the way you register as voters. If the listing is good in my backyard, then I will be motivated to enter the race,” he said in Kisumu.
Ruto has also been rallying the youth to register as voters to shape their destiny by putting in place a government that will address their issues.
“Do not be bystanders. Register as a voter and rally behind a government that will define your destiny,” he said in Kilgoris last month.
