If 'reliable sources' are to be believed, some members of the Kieleweke wing of Jubilee recently indicated to the President that selling ODM boss Raila Odinga as a presidential candidate in the Mt Kenya region is akin to selling pork in Saudi Arabia.
But since reliable sources don’t usually show their faces, nobody has thought to ask them who is sellable in that neighbourhood, if someone with the impeccable reform and liberation credentials of Raila is not.
The Mt Kenya political bride is at a crossroads. At the centre of a tussle between prospective bridegrooms, she has to choose between the corrupt, the angry, the unreliable, the plain dangerous, enemies-turned-friends and friends-turned-enemies.
Like all brides basking in unlimited attention, she makes demands daily, and only providence knows if the ultimate choice will be what mama warned against, or what Kenyans now refer to as 'wash wash'.
Across on the other side of the country where selling Raila is easy, there is a quiet epidemic, which his handlers will hopefully resolve before it is too late.
Everyone who wants to run for any elective position in the core Raila bases, including humble farmers seeking to lead local cattle dip committees, bask in the glory of being seen near him, leading to scrambles for the priceless photo near the leader.
It can get comical when aspirants transport gangs of supporters to shout opponents down, and conversely cheer their preferred candidates in a chaotic attempt to show the ODM boss that they are wananchi’s eyes and ears on the ground.
In his quest to climb Mt Kenya, and facing what may be the friendliest welcome to the mountain since he joined politics, Raila may have to turn his back on the enthusiasm of his core bases. This is especially true among aspirants whose only interests lie in their own survival.
Truth be told, the former Prime Minister has held several serene and almost flawless regional meetings with opinion leaders from the Luhya, the Maasai, the Meru and the Kikuyu communities so far.
I have stated before that these small intimate sessions appear to me to be the best routes into suspicious and reluctant demographics, where a candidate has long been demonised. It is not just a question of seeking political support, but also of assuaging the fears of the electorate.
In penetrating areas previously considered hostile to him, Raila’s diary is going to be totally hectic with rallies and targeted meetings.
He will be 77 years old next year, bang in the heat of the campaigns.
He will not have the same energy and will not be as nimble as he was in 2002 when he covered every inch of the country campaigning for an injured and ailing Mwai Kibaki.
In fact, ahead of the 2022 poll, what Raila needs more than anything is what he was to President Kibaki in 2022: a deputy captain who runs the campaign and sets off the same national wave he did in that year. The demands of an electorate can be quite intense.
Often, they want personalised engagements with the candidate himself. When the group is not from the core base, their overhyped fears can include things as mundane as the candidate’s tribesmen accompanying him at the meeting.
In a country conditioned to the existence of tribal mafias in each regime, the mental calculation goes beyond just the anticipated victory, but also the faces of the potential gatekeepers in that presidency.
This is why the fewer of the candidate’s homeboys and homegirls are on display during the tours, the better for strategic positioning.
There is a book, American Soldier, by former Commander in Chief of the US Central Command, General Tommy Franks. In it, he narrates one anecdote in which the US president ordered an invasion of Afghanistan to overthrow the Taliban and remove al Qaeda, following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.
The US was of course coming in with superior firepower, but Gen Franks soon realised that among the allies they would have to partner with was the Northern Alliance. It was a collection of tribal militias.
The General sent US Special Forces up North to guide and lead the Northern Alliance. But tribal leaders were categorical that the US forces would dress like local militias, hide their powerful American rifles, fight on horseback like local warriors, and basically go back a century to fit into the community.
If not, the war would be lost because the locals wouldn’t buy into what would be perceived as American attempts to enslave the proud residents.
In conquering previously unconquered political territory, the conquering force is burdened by the fears, insecurities and aspirations of the new 'territory' and all attendant demands.
In the Kenyan context, climbing Mt Kenya means Raila’s own people will have to let go of their own needs for delegations needing to meet him, or public rallies in which he has to be present.
And when the boss goes up the Mountain or another previously hostile area, it may serve a bigger purpose to let him go talk to the people there directly, without carrying a huge 'homeboy' gang scrambling for the microphone.
The political aesthetics of Nyanza politicians and aspirants, along with their crowds pushing and shoving for space in Kakamega, or Kajiado, doesn’t serve the long term purpose of this 'Mandela Moment'.
In simpler terms, even though the feeling of being orphaned may be strong, it is time for Raila’s reliable bases in Nyanza, Western, Nairobi and the Coast to make do with his cameo appearances.
At the same time, they should release him to go out and convince the new zones, on whose trust he will stake his electoral victory, to have him for the coming 10 or so months.
I believe his strategists will have identified other 'box to box' political players to cover for the boss while away hunting the bigger prize.
Back to the group that says that it is hard to sell the ODM chief in the Mt Kenya region, they had better read the words of Meru Governor Kiraitu Murungi.
He said, "We placed the crocodiles in Raila’s path and painted him as a demon, we will go and reverse that."
Every single resident of the region knows the long-drawn-out demonisation campaign against Raila, and elected leaders cannot, therefore, feign ignorance of what to do.
I am sure the President if indeed he has chosen to back the ODM boss as his successor, has consumed enough intelligence reports and scientific data to back his decision.
There has to be a bigger national picture he sees that many of his allies from Central Kenya can’t see. So while Raila’s home bases need to release him to the nation, the Mt Kenya 'sellers' have to go out and release the staged hatred to the four winds. Politics is the art of the possible, after all.
(Edited by V. Graham)
