With the next general election beckoning, it is time to reflect and ask ourselves what it takes to win an election.
Different political groupings are strategising at every turn, with each trying to outmanoeuvre the other.
In retrospect, we can audit and draw lessons from the past four multi-party elections the country has had.
The 2002 general election was the country’s most credible, free and fair transitional election.
The entire world gave us a standing ovation for conducting a peaceful election that saw power change from the ruling party to the opposition.
The 2007 election was chaotic and resulted in post-election violence that dented our image globally.
The 2013 election was not any better even though the election violence had significantly scaled down.
The 2017 election was in many ways a high-stakes election whose presidential results were nullified by the Supreme Court.
From the four elections, one would expect that as a country we have come of age as far as elections are concerned.
Not only have we not learnt from them but we do not know how to craft winning formulas.
Elections are won at the ballots. Any other thinking is delusional and political expediency.
It is hard to imagine that one can win an election purely based on support from the incumbency, deep state, endorsement or systems.
While the four might have some influence, the new voting patterns are very unpredictable, thus relying entirely on the four is delusional thinking.
For instance, in the year 2002, Uhuru Kenyatta contested the presidency under Kanu with massive support from then-President Daniel Moi but lost heads down.
Research shows that 70 per cent of our MPs are never reelected. This means that of the current 290 members of the National Assembly, 87 or less will recapture their seats. Kenya’s retention rate is 30 per cent.
With presidential aspirants hanging around, the current MPs will be shocked after August 2022 when they will be voted out.
It is easier for a newcomer to dethrone a sitting MP. Voters believe newcomers more than incumbent leaders.
Secondly, endorsements are selfish adventures. An endorsement is a ‘scratch-my-back as-I-scratch-yours' mentality that does not add value to the voters.
This strategy is done by the outgoing leader who wants to endorse their cronies to take over from them to get political kickbacks and favours once one wins an election.
It is a form of corruption that denies voters the right to make free choices.
Only a weak leader would seek a political endorsement. Leaders who endorse you end up taking you hostage as they demand favours and deals from you.
Most defectors carry along with the whining tag. They promise you everything but deliver nothing.As the next elections beckon, let us all engage in an issue-based campaign
This makes you shift your allegiance from voters to cartels. This baggage can be avoided by being a person of your own making. Voters respect independent leaders who come to the office free of liabilities.
Lately, Raila and Ruto have been meeting ‘delegates’ at their respective offices.
Thereafter they splash their social media walls with well-posed photos and captions meant to hoodwink us into believing that the entire community has been represented by the self-seeking individuals.
This happens whenever elections are near. These political cons auction their allegiance to the highest bidder. They have nothing to offer apart from conmanship.
Relying on political defectors is political suicide. Leaders who are not popular at the grassroots devise ingenious ways to remain relevant.
They survive by promising false support.
Their only consolation is to roam from one division to another in the name of defection.
Most defectors carry along with the whining tag. They promise you everything but deliver nothing.
As the next elections beckon, let us all engage in an issue-based campaign.
Political shenanigans deprive us of an opportunity to debate issues be-deviling our country and instead draw wedges amongst the voters.
The writer is an MA student in Project Planning and Management at the UoN
Edited by Kiilu Damaris
