The last few weeks have witnessed heightened political activities involving President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.
In the intervening period, ODM leader Raila Odinga has also intensified his campaigns to scale the mountain in his quest for the presidency for the fifth time. These activities have left the One Kenya Alliance principals in the limbo.
The circumstances have pushed the trio of Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) and Moses Wetang’ula (Ford-K) to reevaluate their opportunities and threats and as it is, the situation does not favour the grouping of the former Nasa principals.
Their inability to find the magic formula of naming the presidential candidate has further complicated the matrix for their alliance. The traction that Raila’s entry has gained together with the continued onward march of the Deputy President has pulled the rag under their feet.
Kalonzo and OKA principals found themselves in a catch-22 situation. They have variously promised not support anyone outside OKA yet they are unable to attract the necessary gravitas for a presidential race in Kenya’s tribally inclined politics.
Uhuru’s apparent preference for Raila has left them hang and dry.
In sum they have found themselves in a dilemma. In philosophy, dilemmas, also called paradoxes, are situations in which an agent stands under two (or more) conflicting moral requirements, none of which overrides the other.
The dilemma consists of three propositions of which two constitute premises and third one is the conclusion.
The premises do not have any specific order. But the composition is fixed. One of the premises is a conjunction of two hypothetical propositions and the other one is disjunctive.
A dilemma (Greek: δίλημμα "double proposition") is a problem offering two possibilities, neither of which is unambiguously acceptable or preferable. The possibilities are termed the horns of the dilemma, a clichéd usage, but distinguishing the dilemma from other kinds of predicament as a matter of usage.
THE 2022 FIX
With any dilemma, there are basic steps you can take to resolve it, which may involve identifying the dilemma and the interests you want to meet together with the assumptions embedded that keep the needs from being met.
The OKA chiefs, therefore, find themselves in a fix that requires a decision to be made in good time. The three propositions that are at their disposal include pushing through with their original plan to field a candidate to run in 2022, join Ruto as partners or rejoin Raila in a new coalition.
If they push through as a pre-election coalition grouping, they risk political obliteration. So far, their activities have not attracted the necessary oomph to warrant serious consideration by the electorate.
The forage that Mudavadi is making in the Mt Kenya region has largely gone unnoticed. He has also made the mistake of declaring he will be on the ballot, even if it means going alone. This means he does not firmly believe in the OKA declaration that they will establish a mechanism to determine a single presidential candidate from amongst themselves.
Interesting to note is that even from the ranks of his party ANC, only his deputy, Ayub Savula, has been consistent in his support for Mudavadi’s bid. Savula has found company in Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja elected on the Jubilee ticket.
Raila has maintained his strong footing in western, so is Ruto. Wetang’ula has a slice of Bungoma. This makes Mudavadi’s candidature a pale of his initial stab in 2013.
Kalonzo has been trying to rally the Ukambani leaders behind his second attempt without much success. Since former Machakos Senator Johnson Muthama went to the UDA bandwagon, Kalonzo has been struggling to regain whatever was left of his 2007 ODM-Kenya wave in Kambaland.
The three governors — Charity Ngilu (Kitui), Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni) and Alfred Mutua (Machakos) are pulling in their separate ways but united that Kalonzo represents their past but not present and future. Kalonzo is, therefore, a limping general without unit commandants to rally his troops. This may make his support base scatter to the dominant presidential candidates.
Wetang’ula has never formally declared his presidential candidature beyond showing interest since 2013. His Ford Kenya leadership has always assured him of principal slot in any alliance arrangement entered. That position is now challenged by the Wafula Wamunyinyi group and the on slaought from his governor, Wycliffe Wangamati.
The obtaining scenario, therefore, makes the OKA principals weak candidates either as an alliance or running in their individual capacities. Under the OKA umbrella, they are assured of political oblivion.
They may choose to join DP Ruto and provide a formidable grouping that may sweep the presidential election in the first round.
ENDORSING EITHER RAILA OR RUTO
Ruto has already launched his bid and declared his economic blue print for the country, if elected President. He has also made it abundantly clear he is not interested in pre-election deals. He is the undisputed leader of his troops and anyone joining must abide by the existing ethos and vision.
OKA principals would, therefore, have to fold their respective parties together with their outfit agreement to join Ruto and hit the ground campaigning for him.
The negotiations that will precede the joining may not guarantee the delivery or fulfilment of the promises made by Ruto. OKA leaders will have to contend with what is offered to them and accept their fate of never being presidents of Kenya. Because once Ruto becomes president with Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Wetang’ula under his fold, their political retirement is sealed. The best shot being the positions and opportunities Ruto will offer them and their respective lieutenants in his government.
If on the other hand they choose to rejoin their erstwhile captain Raila, they may squeeze a better deal while still foregoing the presidential candidate position. Since he resumed active political engagements, Raila has not ruled out pre-election agreements. In deed, his language of “Azimio la Umoja” suggests a broad-based political leadership structure. He seems keen to lure other key leaders into his new political journey that still targets Canaan.
OKA principals would get accommodation in this train but probably not in the first class cabin as was in 2013 and 2017.
Since they bolted out and accused Raila of being dishonest, some other ambitious politicos might have taken up their spaces. But in Raila’s camp, they have a political future. They will hold leadership positions that have dignity and be treated with decorum.
The dilemma facing the OKA principals require they either take it by the horns or go through the horns. That is the nature of dilemma in philosophical logic.
