The One Kenya Alliance principals are walking a political tightrope as the 2022 presidential battle shapes up.
On one hand, the outfit is battling internal suspicions of betrayal as moves by other bigwigs appear to complicate their plans.
On the other hand, President Uhuru Kenyatta's succession game plan is confounding, 12 months to the presidential duel.
The fledgling alliance comprises Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper) and Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Gideon Moi (Kanu) and Moses Wetang'ula of Ford Kenya.
Except for Gideon, who backed President Kenyatta's 2017 reelection, the three were in the moribund National Super Alliance that supported ODM leader Raila Odinga.
At the centre of the One Kenya Alliance's trouble are reports that Gideon, who is also the Baringo senator, could be warming up to Raila.
Should Gideon ultimately dump his partners in OKA, that would limit the options available for the outfit's hopes of producing the country's fifth President.
Gideon has been seen as a key cog of the OKA outfit — initially seen as part of President Kenyatta's 2022 succession plan— before Raila's larger-than-life influence complicated the matrix.
Further, should Uhuru make good his indications to pick Raila as his successor, the OKA partners will have to go back to the drawing board.
A presidential endorsement comes with a lot of political and systems leverage in hotly contested presidential races, such as the one anticipated in 2022.
The OKA principals have demonised Raila as an untrustworthy politician and a political fraudster whose deals are littered with betrayals.
They have accused him of scheming to frustrate the NASA agreement that allegedly barred ODM from fielding a presidential candidate in 2022 and instead support another partner.
However, ODM has disputed that the Nasa pact blocks Raila from running again, insisting that the agreement would only hold water if the former prime minister had won the 2017 presidential election.
Wiper, ODM, ANC and Ford Kenya were party to the 2017 pre-election deal that created the Nasa coalition, which nearly derailed Uhuru's reelection.
They have to tell some OKA critics, including Makueni Governor Kivutha Kibwana, who was among the people who witnessed the signing of the deal, that the agreement was conditional with a rider that it would take effect only if Raila won the 2017 election.
Kalonzo has declared that he’d rather retire from politics than support Raila for the third time, signalling a hardline position taken that could hamper unity efforts ahead of 2022.
On Thursday, Tongaren MP Eseli Simiyu declared the OKA outfit was limping towards a disastrous disintegration over the standoff about their 2022 flagbearer choice.
“The alliance was created for convenience by some forces behind the 2022 succession to manage ambitions and expectations and upon serving its purpose, it would be nastily disbanded,” Eseli said.
The former Ford Kenya secretary general said the outfit may not survive a full cycle until the next elections because "it was not in the first place supposed to live longer" to play in the 2022 polls.
“It is only a matter of time before the alliance is scattered,” he said.
In what was seen as public display of camaraderie among the OKA chiefs, the three held a lengthy meeting on Wednesday to assuage fears that the outfit was on the brink of collapse.
The meeting came two weeks after Gideon missed at least three meetings convened by his colleagues to firm up their 2022 political plans amid talk of a looming ODM-Jubilee alliance.
For the first time, the principals brought some of their trusted lieutenants into the session as they sought to downplay fears of disintegration.
Some of the allies of the partners who attended the meeting included Kitui Senator Enock Wambua, Tiaty MP William Kamket, Nairobi Senator Johnson Sakaja and Nambare MP Sakwa Bunyasi.
Ford Kenya National Organising secretary Mandu Mandu said OKA was there to stay and that it will form the next government.
“A lot of ground has been covered regarding how the principals will approach the 2022 polls. Those wishing OKA any form of death will be in for a rude shock,” he told the Star.
The Wetang'ula ally said the principals were being apprised by a technical committee on formalising the alliance.
“The technical committee has been working on various thematic areas, including firming up a formal agreement that will be signed by the principals on how they will approach the 2022 polls,” he said.
However, politicians and analysts say the OKA principals are faced with limited options on their approach to 2022, given that the landscape is fast-shifting.
For instance, the President has been keen in uniting the team under the Nasa coalition, a proposal the OKA Kenya luminaries believe would give Raila an upper hand in the succession plan.
Lifting the lid on the political undercurrents roiling the succession process, the President's Jubilee party has kicked off talks to build an alliance with Raila's ODM party.
The talks with ODM are geared towards ratcheting their 2018 handshake deal into a 2022 pre-election pact that would see them field a joint presidential candidate.
National ODM chairman John Mbadi told the Star that the party is racing against time to finalise negotiations with Jubilee in July to pave the way for the formalisation of the alliance.
According to Mbadi, ODM will in a few days convene a meeting of a key party organ to ratify the alliance framework with Jubilee before the document is formally unveiled.
“Just give it like a month and you will see everything taking shape,” Mbadi told the Star.
He went on; “You can take it to the bank that from July, the alliance will take shape. However, about the nature of the architecture will be determined later.”
The surprise move by Jubilee and ODM bigwigs to unveil alliance triggered panic among OKA partners over fears of being swept away by the handshake waves in the 2022 polls.
A part from the ODM-Jubilee alliance being crafted by the President's succession strategists, Deputy President William Ruto is building his presidential machine but which the OKA principals have said they will not board.
This means that the OKA luminaries are under pressure to establish a bearing within the President's succession matrix.
The President's men are insisting that OKA must work with Raila ahead of the polls, if they want to be within the team that will form the next government.
In an indication of the Raila factor in the Uhuru succession plans, Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu has asked the OKA team and especially the region's political supremo, Kalonzo, to unite with Raila or perish in 2022.Unless they [the four NASA principals] unite, hiyo State House wataionea Viusasa (they will only see State House from a distance),” she said.
The former presidential candidate says the National Rainbow Coalition won the 2002 General Election and managed to help Mwai Kibaki clinch the seat because they fielded a joint candidate.
“We campaigned for Kibaki in absentia. He was in the hospital during the campaigns but since we united, we won that seat very early in the morning,” she added.
“I do not understand why fellow leaders are selfishly fighting each other. Every one of us is known by our individual achievements and utterances and will be judged by Kenyans as an individual,” she went on.
The President has planned a tour of the Wiper leader's Ukambani region next week where he will open a number of development projects.
On Tuesday, governors Ngilu, Alfred Mutua (Machakos) and Kibwana held talks to plan the President's visit and insisted Raila will join Uhuru in the tour in what would further elevate him within the succession plan.
