Chebukati removal plot dims hopes for credible '22 polls

IEBC chairman Wafula Chebukati, commissioners Abdi Guliye, and Boya Molu may not preside over the 2022 general election.

Factions allied to President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga have reportedly resolved that they must vacate the offices.

Acting chief executive officer Marjan Hussein is also targeted in the purge.

The grounds: They supposedly cannot be trusted to handle the polls.

ODM stalwarts have already asked the four to stop any preparations for next year’s election until the other four commissioners are appointed.

Homa Bay Woman Representative Gladys Wanga let the cat out of the bag with her comments that they would consult and find a way forward.

The lawmaker was categorical that they wouldn’t entrust the 2022 vote to the Chebukati team.

“We would be naïve to go to another election with Chebukati at the helm,” Wanga told a charged gathering in Homa Bay.

“As MPs, we shall consult and find the best way forward for this country so we don’t plunge into chaos again because of an election that has not been properly conducted,” she said.

Ahead of her speech, her Ugunja counterpart Opiyo Wandayi, who is also ODM's secretary for political affairs, took a dig at the secretariat.

He said once the four new commissioners assume office, their first task should be to hire a substantive CEO to strengthen the secretariat.

“We must get this thing right now, otherwise, we will have ourselves to blame,” the Public Accounts Committee chairman said in the presence of Raila.

They were backed by ODM chairman John Mbadi who promised to give his opinion once the four are sworn in.

“Chebukati, stop all that you are doing now until we get a full commission…we don’t trust you...I will say the rest after we will have passed the four names,” he said.

The ODM team says Chebukati and his staffers “can wait for a little while so that we can have a fully constituted IEBC to undertake procurement".

Coming from Raila’s fierce defenders, the sentiments have elicited concerns Kenyans could go to the polls with brand-new commissioners.

MPs are yet to begin confirmation hearings for the appointment of Francis Wanderi, Justus Abonyo, Juliana Cherera and Irene Cherop as IEBC commissioners.

Observers say should the schemers execute the removal of the three, the commission’s activities are likely to be thrown into disarray.

The commission has also run into trouble with the procurement of Kiems (Kenya Integrated Election Management System) kits for the election following a temporary freeze by the Public Procurement Administrative Review Board.

Deputy President William Ruto's UDA side has dismissed such calls for removals and delay, describing them as a dangerous move and one driven by fear.

Ruto's ally Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei said, however, they don't care who sits at the helm of the commission as it's the voters who matter.

Poll experts agree that with the prevailing trajectory, the country could be headed to yet another cycle of uncertain poll outcomes, worse, as this will be a transitional poll.

Elections Observer Group (Elog) national coordinator Mule Musau said there would be outstanding issues in the IEBC preparedness for the 2022 election.

He said the polls agency needs to be a full house to become functional.

Ideally, a fully composed commission should be in office for two years before the conduct of general or presidential elections

The High Court had ruled the three commissioners cannot function unless the rest of the commissioners are in place. 

Musau cautioned that without proper induction, there would be the risk of disharmony between the new team and the current three.

He said that if they are not on the same page, the commissioners may split, thus affecting smooth functioning of the commission.

“We need to fast-track the recruitment process to create harmony which will help finalise the preparations," he said.

Even so, the country is already outside the timelines recommended by the Independent Review Commission chaired by South African judge Johann Kriegler.

The Kriegler team recommended that ordinary members and chairman of the electoral commission be in place two years before an election.

The IREC further recommended that the expiry of the terms of office of electoral commission members should not coincide with election years.

“Ideally, a fully composed commission should be in office for two years before the conduct of general or presidential elections,” the commission advised.

Kenya has had trouble with poll management bodies save for 2002 when the Electoral Commission of Kenya was deemed to have delivered a trustworthy election.

Elections of 1992, 1997, 2007, 2013, and 2017 were contested – all complaints tied to the skewed composition, structure and appointment of commissioners.

The Electoral Law and Governance Institute of Africa argued the recommendation for new commissioners to be appointed to run the IEBC in the 2022 elections “will probably be ineffectual".

In its report on electoral integrity in Kenya, the experts said the same did not work when a new commission was formed to run the elections in 2002, 2013 and again in 2017.

“The replacement of commissioners after the 2007 debacle did not improve the credibility of the 2013 election,” ELGIA said in its report.

ELGIA boss Felix Odhiambo concluded that changing the mode of appointing commissioners or appointing a new commission on the eve of an election guarantees neither an election with integrity nor a trustworthy commission.

“With the deck stacked that way, it is unlikely that new faces at the IEBC will calm the public’s jangled nerves where credible elections are concerned,” the expert argued.

Chebukati’s team, which was put in place before the 2017 election, ran an illegal presidential election that was nullified by the Supreme Court after a petition by the Raila team.

In its review of the events, the IEBC wants the commissioners' appointments staggered, saying that would be the best way out of the quagmire.

The commission said an ideal situation would be to reduce the number of commissioners from the current seven to five, including the chairman.

“The appointment of commissioners should be staggered to ensure continuity, institutional memory and succession at the commission,” the IEBC said. 

It wants at least two lawyers to be on the team, one to be chairman, as well as experts in ICT and Human Resources.

Chebukati, apart from the staffing issues, has deplored budgetary shortfalls that would cut down on voter registration days and staff.

In a report tabled in Parliament on Tuesday, a team of MPs flagged what they called IEBC’s false start in preparations for 2022.

The Committee on Delegated Legislation, in a meeting to discuss campaign funding laws, said the hitch in the now-annulled regulations was a telling sign.

Owing to missteps by the commission, 2022 aspirants have leeway to spend as they please after the laws were annulled.

(Edited by V. Graham)