Following heavy rains that led to floods and landslides, Kenyans are once again faced with a looming food crisis.
The country has been experiencing heavy rains since October last year, which have greatly destroyed crops. This has made the cost of food expensive, and the situation could get worse by February.
Development economist Timothy Njagi from Tegemeo Institute said the country is staring at a food shortage in the next month.
He said farmers are used to dry-farming, where rains are depressed, but the country is now facing a wet-farming scenario of heavy rains now destroying crops.
Njagi said the problem we are facing is that we have not consolidated data on the crops that were destroyed by the short rains, and this is a big gap.
He said from February, farmers will have the short rains crop and there are two possible scenarios that are likely to happen.
“Where the short rains have been good for maize, farmers are likely to get a more than average yield for maize, but the key situation is whether this will compensate the loss. If the short rains harvest will not compensate the long rains losses, this will be bad news for Kenyans,” Njagi said.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has said the rains will continue in January in some parts of the country, and this will affect the short rains crops.
TRANSPORT, HARVEST DISRUPTION
The Famine Early Warning System Network issued a quarterly food security outlook on the country. It predicts some 17 counties will be food stressed between February and May. These are Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Laikipia, West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet, Baringo, Turkana, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, Tana River, Lamu, Kilifi, Kwale, Kajiado and Narok.
The early warning outlook showed from October to December, Kenya experienced one of the wettest short rains seasons on record, with rainfall totals ranging up to 400 per cent of average.
A second round of floods and landslides in November caused the death of 132 people, displaced 17,000 and affected approximately 330,000, primarily in West Pokot.
“Disruptions to critical transport infrastructure and ongoing delays in the unimodal harvest have reduced the availability of food in markets, sustaining high food prices. In localised areas, crop and livestock losses have been reported,” the report said.
The report further indicates that staple food prices remained high in November, driven by low market supply resulting from the delayed unimodal long rains harvest in western Kenya, a decline in cross-border imports and below-average bimodal production in late 2018 and early 2019.
In addition, the disruptions to trade flows from heavy rain are likely exacerbating this trend. In comparison to the five-year average, maize prices ranged from 14 to 41 per cent above average, and bean prices ranged from 9 to 25 per cent above average, with few exceptions. Bean prices in Nairobi were exceptionally high, at 58 per cent above the five-year average.
In pastoral areas, the replenishment of rangeland resources has reduced livestock trekking distances and driven migration to wet season grazing areas near homesteads. This has led to better body conditions, milk productivity and sale values.
Rising goat prices according to the report are counterbalancing the impact of high food prices, and household purchasing power is gradually improving in most areas.
But as households transition to a stressed situation in early 2020, the population in need of livelihood support is expected to be atypically high, given that many poor households continue to have below-normal livestock assets.
The report further indicated that overall, the population experiencing stressed outcomes is expected to remain high through May in marginal agricultural areas.
“In many areas, the area planted is above normal, cropping conditions remain favourable and agricultural labour demand is at typical levels. However, excess soil moisture and flooding in some coastal and southeastern areas is expected to result in below-average, short-cycle legumes production and localised maize losses,” the report read.
HIGH FOOD PRICES
Njagi said there will be poor distribution of food from surplus areas to deficit areas, but most of the deficit areas are currently suffering from flooding.
He told Kenyans to brace for high costs of food between now and June because the performance is also likely to be depressed.
A 90kg bag of maize is selling at between Sh3,000 and Sh3,400. A 50kg bag of Irish potatoes is selling at between Sh1,500 to Sh2,700, up from an average of Sh1,500 in October.
A 126kg bag of carrots is retailing at Sh2,500-3,800, a 64kg box of tomatoes at Sh4,000-5, 500, a 13kg net of dry onions at Sh900-1,200 and a tray of eggs at Sh300-320.
The economist said the price of potatoes has started going up because most potatoes are rotting in the farms due to too much water.
“The government needs to monitor and provide information on how to improve the distribution of food to the deficit areas. We should also monitor imports because the rains are also being experienced across the Horn of Africa and the big importers of maize in Kenya may also be having a shortfall, hence the need for early planning,” he said.
He added that the government should by the end of the month monitor and collect data on the effect of the crop damaged during this short rain season, to help inform the food deficit and make informed decisions.
“The key thing is to enhance monitoring to make sure we can be able to minimise the losses,” Njagi said.
Agriculture PS Hamadi Boga said the rains are worrying and also a blessing because for the first time in a long time, the short rains will be long and the areas which depend on this season will produce more.
“This will be good for the country's short rains harvest. We are likely to have an increase of two million bags of maize harvest this season,” Boga said.
He said the country is expecting a short rains harvest of eight million bags, which is more than past projections of six million bags of maize. Areas that depend on the short rains include Central, Eastern and parts of Coast.
“But the heavy rains could also have an effect on the accessibility of food and will increase post-harvest losses of various food crops, especially those that are perishable,” Boga said.
“When people are not able to move their produce, especially perishable things, availing the produce to consumers will be a problem and transport logistics can have an impact on prices.”
UNGA MORE EXPENSIVE
Prices of unga have increased to Sh130 from an average of Sh120 in October, and millers say the prices are likely to go up in coming months due to a looming shortage of maize.
Ken Nyaga, chairman of the United Grain Millers Association, said currently millers are struggling to get maize for milling because what is locally available has high moisture content and is being bought by traders from South Sudan and Tanzania.
“The moisture content is at a high level of between 16-18 per cent, and not many millers have the capacity to reduce this to the required level of 13.5 per cent. Farmers are selling maize to traders taking maize to South Sudan and Tanzania, who have no problem with the moisture content,” he said.
A 90kg bag of maize is selling at Sh3,400 in Nairobi and Sh3,100 in Eldoret. Nyaga said by mid this month, the prices of unga could go up further.
Former agriculture CAS Andrew Tuimur said the long rains' expected harvest was 33 million bags, which is 11 million bags less than the 2018 harvest of 44 million bags.
He attributed the decline to a reduction in the acreage under maize crop from 2.2 million hectares to 1.5 million hectares last year.
He said the harvest will be against an annual consumption of 52 million bags. Kenyans consume 4.2 million bags of maize monthly. The deficit is met through imports from neighbouring countries, including Uganda, Tanzania, Malawi and Zambia.
Tuimur said farmers reduced the acreage under maize crop in the March-April-May long rains season due to various reasons, including a delay in rains.
“The unfair weather conditions forced farmers in the low potential areas to shift to horticulture crops, while those in the high potential areas of the Rift Valley planted wheat and pasture. Others shifted to planting maize for animal feeds,” he said.
Tuimur said the lack of subsidised fertiliser and the effects of the fall armyworm could also have contributed to the decline. But he said the attack of the pest last year was not be as bad as 2017.
Millers want the government to allow maize imports, through their associations, to bridge the gap of what is required for the next three to four months.
“We are asking for a waiver for millers through the registered associations and not a window for open importation. This will ensure we do not flood the country with maize imports so that when the next harvest comes, farmers can sell their produce,” Nyaga said.
