The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and
Applications Centre (ICPAC) has cautioned that the Greater Horn of Africa will
experience varied rainfall patterns and generally warmer-than-average
temperatures during the March to May (MAM) 2026 season, calling for heightened
preparedness among governments and humanitarian actors.
In a statement on Tuesday following the 72nd Greater Horn of Africa Climate
Outlook Forum (GHACOF 72) held in Nairobi, ICPAC said there is a 45 per cent
probability of wetter-than-normal rainfall over much of the region, including
most parts of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, central to western Kenya,
Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia and Djibouti.
“A 40 per cent probability of near-normal rainfall is indicated over western
and eastern South Sudan, north-eastern and south-western Kenya, most parts of
Somalia, coastal Tanzania, and isolated areas of Uganda and Ethiopia,” the
statement said.
However, ICPAC warned that drier-than-normal conditions are expected over
coastal parts of Kenya, even as other areas receive enhanced rainfall,
underscoring the uneven distribution of seasonal rains.
The regional climate body also noted that the onset of rains is expected to
be normal to early over most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, but delays
are forecast over localized areas of Ethiopia, South Sudan and Somalia.
Despite the seasonal outlook, ICPAC cautioned that dry spells may still
occur in areas forecast to receive near-normal or above-normal rainfall, while
wet spells could affect areas projected to receive near- or below-normal
rainfall.
On temperatures, the outlook indicates that warmer-than-average conditions
are expected over most of the region, with higher probabilities over Sudan,
Djibouti, Tanzania, and parts of Ethiopia, Somalia and Kenya.
Cooler-than-average conditions are forecast over parts of central to
northern Ethiopia.
ICPAC urged member states and partners to act on the advisory, saying
governments should “actively use the ICPAC regional seasonal outlook alongside
national and sub-national forecasts” issued by meteorological agencies.
The centre also called for close monitoring of updated seasonal,
sub-seasonal and short-range forecasts to support timely planning and
decision-making.
“Preparedness and anticipatory actions should be scaled up to minimise
potential flood and drought impacts, protect lives and livelihoods, and
safeguard critical infrastructure,” the statement said.
ICPAC added that it will continue providing regular regional updates, while
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will issue detailed,
country-specific forecasts and advisories.
