OKWANY: Azimio pledges heavenly on paper, ignore work ethic, realities

The engineers of the manifesto demonstrate it is a blueprint similar to the 2002 National Rainbow Coalition manifesto moment. However, implementation of some of the main points is unrealistic.

The manifesto projects a social democratic government that is rooted in the social aspect, what the coalition refers to as a UTU-based system and democratic governance — people-centred government.

The manifesto is ambitious, and a great concern is where the money is going to be generated.

A day after the launch of the manifesto, Parliament passed a law to increase the country’s debt ceiling to Sh10 trillion from the Sh9 trillion ceiling of 2019. If Raila Odinga's team wins the August election, Azimio la Umoja will get about Sh2 trillion as a budget to start with.

Thus, the promises in the manifesto seem to be too ambitious and will be challenging to achieve.

The coalition has 10 agenda points; however, this analysis will focus on the main hyped agenda items. The second and the fifth: Azimio la Jitihada and Azimio la Viwanda, respectively, are the driving force for financial engineering. The two will be the economic basket that aims to feed other agendas.

Additionally, the coalition claims it will tap the money from corruption, which takes about 7.8 per cent of the country’s GDP annually. The Ethics and Anti-corruption Commission affirms that the country loses Sh608 billion annually. President Kenyatta earlier confirmed the EACC findings, pointing out that government loses Sh2 billion daily to corruption. Thus, Azimio la Umoja aims to tap this fund to improve development and social transformation.

A number of the agendas are easily achievable because they require political will. For example, devolution has faced antagonism between the centralist and the decentralist. Currently, the counties receive 14 per cent of the devolved revenue from the national government. This number has reduced from the 2013 to 2017 budget, which was 15 per cent for the counties, including the five per cent Equalisation Fund.

Therefore, the coalition’s Agenda No 1, Azimio la Ugatuzi, seems achievable since devolution requires political will. Additionally, Agenda No 3, Azimio la Kina Mama, No 6, Azimio la Wananchi, and No 7, Azimio la Uwajibikaji, require political will; thus, these can be achieved within a short timeframe.

However, the manufacturing agenda is appealing and looks good on paper; with its implementation raising many economic and ethical questions. Improving the jua kali sector and creating skill-based education is one of the most significant policy projections that  can enhance economic growth at the local level.

The mega-industrial production requires significant workmanship, political will and resources. The political will already exists from the coalition. However, the resources and the workmanship are limited when it comes to mega-industrial production and manufacturing.

Additionally, it requires building a work ethic and a mindset for economic engineering. Changing the mindset and work ethic requires time, and policy implementation requires at least 20 to 40 years before its realisation.

Furthermore, the global market is rapidly changing. Thus, manufacturing requires rapid adjustments of the industrial capacity and manufacturing systems, easy adaptation and valued quantities of the products for the particular type of market, and the existing system needs a quick integrated process and functions of new technology.

International marketing calls for the management of demand and supply processes, which are accountable for satisfying, identifying, and anticipating customer requirements. Knowledge of the market is essential, mainly in international marketing; understanding competition and consumers' wants and needs at the international level is vital.

Apart from the knowledge of the market, there is a need for cross-functional collaboration — the degree of cooperation locally and internationally. And the level of research development and innovation at the production and market level is essential.

The Jua Kali and the industrial production sector projected by Azimio la Umoja are vulnerable to the international market, such as the Asian giant production and manufacturing.

Additionally, one of the stumbling blocks to the revival of the textile industry is the competitive international market and the political economy of the textile industry. They led to the death of the cotton industry in Kenya due to the World Bank’s structural adjustment programmes and the liberalisation of the markets in the 1990s.

Furthermore, burning the mitumba economy is not easy because second-hand clothes are not only attractive to Kenyans but also compete with local textile industry.

Thus, the Azimio la Umoja coalition’s manufacturing drive is a great initiative, but it is bound to face difficulties due to the historical culture of work ethic, graft in the country, the highly competitive international market and political economy.

Furthermore, 'waste not a single child' is achievable but has challenges when it comes to the tertiary level. Achieving free education at primary and secondary levels is possible. However, the challenge comes with tertiary schooling.

Universities in Kenya are already facing financial difficulties; they hardly conduct research, which is their key objective apart from teaching, with some already reducing administrative staff. The government funding to run the universities is minimal.

Thus, the introduction of module II or the parallel programme in the 1990s was a boost to the university's financial budget. Providing free education at the tertiary level, as Raila pointed out at the launch of the manifesto, is ambitious.

The module II programme is an essential financial backbone of public universities, and doing away with it means more funding from the government to the universities, which is already a challenge.

Agenda No 10, BabaCare, is too ambitious and anticipates economic challenges ahead. Achieving universal healthcare is a tall walk in a low-income country such as Kenya because health insurance is costly, and if you are already sick most insurance doesn’t want to cover you.

Apart from Thailand, no low-income country has achieved universal healthcare since the year 2001. Developed countries have achieved universal healthcare over a long period, and even Obamacare, which Raila borrows, faces a political and implementation challenge, yet the United States is a high-income nation.

Additionally, most Kenyan citizens are poor and unemployed. Kenya faces ethnic politics, which is a challenge when it comes to social policy reforms. The National Health Insurance Fund challenge is that only 40 per cent of the registered members are active members while the other 60 per cent are inactive members; thus, adopting the NHIF means starting with challenges.

If the projected BabaCare is according to what Raila points out as a replica of Obamacare, then BabaCare has two meanings, 1) affordable healthcare for all, it creates a guarantee issue, and 2) everyone will be charged a community or common rating fee.

Additionally, BabaCare is a three-legged stool, 1) it has regulations on payments, 2) individual mandate/responsibilities, and 3) government subsidy.

There will be 1) regulations if you do not pay, you get a penalty of a certain amount; 2) the individual mandate Obamacare charges one per cent of the income; the question is how much will BabaCare charge if those who are not working cannot afford to pay for their NHIF card? 3) Obamacare has a subsidy for those who cannot pay for it.

Raila affirmed that, “Wale hawana pesa, Serikali itawalipia [The government will pay for the poor].” The question is, where will the money come from to subsidise the BabaCare healthcare system. This means there will be healthcare rights for all.

However, the problem is if the deviant people decide not to pay or those who are not sick refuse to pay for the insurance but only pay when they are sick, the sick will be left to pay for the insurance because they need it (health insurance). Therefore, the government will get into a debt spiral, falling into significant debt over time.

The Azimio agenda points are heavenly when one reads them, and the implementation of most of them is realistic.

However, the main ones, such as economic reengineering, are only good on paper and do not consider historical and cultural work ethic, including the competitive international market.

Furthermore, zero tolerance for corruption is ambitious. Corruption is rooted in the political DNA of the country; at the local level, the members of the county assembly are contractors who win tenders at the county level, this means corrupt deals outdo the oversight responsibilities of the MCAs, and at the same time, a trickle-down effect of corruption applies in other institutions.

Research Fellow at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, the University of Nairobi.