With the 2022 general election less than seven months away, the 82 political parties approved by the electoral commission must submit their nominated aspirants' names by April 23.
Based on experience, those who clinch nomination ticket in areas where a party is dominant are almost assured of winning at the general election.
This is likely to occur in ODM strongholds of Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii and Nyamira counties.
It will also be the case in some Nairobi subcounties as well as the Coast counties of Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Taita Taveta, Tana River and Lamu.
The Upya movement of Northeastern will also likely have a huge influence in the primaries in Garissa, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera and Marsabit.
Since the re-introduction of multiparty politics in 1992, the history of political parties is replete with insurmountable irregularities during primaries.
UDA and Chama Cha Mashinani will engage in the Rift Valley counties of Uasin Gichu, Nandi, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kericho and Bomet.
Kanu is likely to share the spoils with UDA in Baringo, Samburu, West Pokot and Turkana, while Wiper party, Maendeleo Chap Chap and Narc will scramble for positions in Machakos, Makueni and Kitui.
The revamped Devolution Empowerment Party (Mbus) and the Democratic Party will fight it out in Embu, Tharaka Nithi and Meru.
ANC, which is now in partnership with UDA , holds the fort in the Western counties of Kakamega, Vihiga and Busia, while Ford Kenya and newly launched Democratic Alliance Party of Kenya (DAP-K) will call the shots in Bungoma and Trans Nzoia.
Outfits in Central Kenya include Jubilee, PNU, Narc Kenya, The Service Party, Usawa kwa Wote, Chama Cha Kazi, Ubuntu People’s Party and Tujibebe Party.
The ensuing fall out in the primaries has been evident in the apathy exhibited among voters and subsequently low voter turnout.
The IEBC in the 2017 general election said it had cleared 14,542 candidates from various parties and independents. All their names had to be on the ballot for the numerous positions. This created anxiety and confusion among the electorate.
There were 4,002 candidates who vied as Independent in the August 8, 2017 poll.
At the presidential level, the IEBC said it had received eight candidates, 1,893 for MP, 11,873 for MCAs, 258 for the Senate seat, 258 for woman reps 299 and 211 seeking the governorship.
With the increased interest, these numbers are likely to increase in this election.
The spread out voting patterns along with low voter turnout — as a result of bungled nominations — shall definitely have a domino effect on the final presidential outcome occasioning a run off.
This is the likely scenario.
First, once the presidential aspirants are vetted and cleared by the IEBC, they will rely on their respective party candidates to rally their supporters countrywide.
Second, the sheer number candidates for numerous seats on the various political parties without allegiance to any presidential contenders will have an impact on the outcome.
Third, the shortfall in voter turnout in the presidential candidate strongholds shall erode their quest to become the next p[resident.
Fourth, if the voter apathy is directed towards a party for bungling party primaries as witnessed in the past, losing aspirants have window to contest as independents with reduced support for the party presidential flag bearer.
Fifth, the parties in the nominations shall have a reduced number of representatives at the Senate, the National Assembly and the county assemblies.
Sixth, reduced representation shall be an uphill task in governing in the event the presidential candidate is declared the winner. That is, the number of MPs and MCAs the party shall command will depend on how the parties conduct their primaries, especially in their strongholds.
Finally in the event there shall be a run off, then the two leading candidates shall have an even more daunting task: Their candidates, who will have been elected, will see no need to continue icampaigning as politicians' interest is immensely self-serving.
The 2107 repeat presidential election is testimony to this.
To mitigate these challenges, parties must undertake thorough house cleaning by updating their member registers. This should be followed by free, fair, credible, accountable and verifiable party primaries.
Dr Njau Gitu is an educator who also practices as a governance, policy and strategy adviser.
@GNjauGitu
