OTIENO: What diaspora vote means for presidential frontrunners

ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga is betting heavily on having the diaspora vote in his basket come the 2022 elections.

As such, the former Prime Minister has been quite vocal in putting pressure on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission to have as many countries as possible to be captured in the next polls.

It is not for nothing that the diaspora has been labelled Kenya’s 48th county. It has the numbers, but its real strength lies in the financial might.

According to statistics from the Central Bank of Kenya, diaspora remittances to Kenya stood at some $337 million as of October.

Out of these remittances, North America had the lion’s share with $226 million, Europe followed with $47 million, while the rest of the world sent home $63 million.

These monies go a long way in supporting families back home in almost all aspects of life, from providing basic essentials such as food, paying for hospitalization, education and other needs.

Because of this, Kenyans in the diaspora rightfully feel they are key stakeholders in our elections but have been denied the chance to exercise their voting rights to the maximum. It is indeed disheartening that in the last elections, only Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, and South Africa participated.

To its credit, the IEBC has since expanded the list to include the United Arab Emirates, the US, the UK, Canada, Qatar, and South Sudan. It is in the public domain that apart from Raila, the other presidential hopefuls, Deputy President William Ruto and ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi, are all salivating for the diaspora vote.

Because of the many engagements he has had with the diaspora for many years, Raila can be termed as a front runner in the hunt for these votes. It is imperative to note that although not allowed to vote in earlier elections, the diaspora – especially in the US - voice was very vocal, especially in the fight for more democratic space during the one-party Kanu rule.

This voice was also felt when Kenya was fighting to get a new constitutional dispensation, which was achieved in 2010. Because of their refined sense of freedom, thanks to living in countries where democracy is a fundamental right, these Kenyans were  all for the new constitution.

This is where the Raila camp is hinging its hope on come the next elections. For a long time, Raila’s name was synonymous with the agitation for more democratic space and indeed many credited him and retired President Mwai Kibaki for the 2010 Constitution.

Those rooting for Raila believe the Constitution would be the former premier’s strong selling point to the diaspora community. On the other hand, Raila’s main challenger, DP Ruto, cannot enjoy such a privilege.

The main reason for this is that Ruto stood on what can be referred to as the wrong side of history. When it was clear that nearly all Kenyans were rooting for a new constitution, he hitched his wagons with a section of church leaders who felt the proposed new document was an affront to their Christian beliefs.

As it stands, this group was defeated and Kenyans got a new constitution. But it would be foolhardy for the ODM leader and his handlers to rely on events that happened more than a decade ago to have serious bearings on next year’s polls.

After all, Ruto is a man who has proved time and again that he can change stances as need be and I will not be surprised if one day, he wakes up to tout his credentials in agitating for and helping Kenyans get the 2010 Constitution.

As for now, all eyes will be on our compatriots domiciled in far away lands as we head to the ballot to elect the fifth president of Kenya.

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