MUGA: Will 2022 be a turning point in Kenyan politics?

In previous election cycles, with barely eight months to go to the general election, political pundits would be assessing regional sentiments to try and figure out in advance who would vote for whom.

And when I say “regional sentiments” I of course mean “tribal sentiments”: for the one constant of Kenyan politics has been that Kenyans vote on rigidly tribal lines.

There are occasional exceptions of course. Still, the general pattern has been clear enough and the dominant formula has been that to win the presidency, you need 'two and a half tribes' – that is at least two of the five big tribes and one or more of the smaller tribes, usually regarded as a 'swing vote' that could go either way.

One last clarification: not all big tribes are equal. The biggest tribe of all, the Kikuyu of the Mt Kenya region (who up to now have invariably been supported by their 'cousins' the Embu and Meru) is a voting bloc about three times bigger than the Kamba, who are 'the smallest big tribe'.

So, the Kikuyu vote should really have been the most coveted prize in any presidential race. Only it never was. There was always a formidable Kikuyu candidate who had already pocketed that large vote bloc, and – to have a clear shot at victory – only needed a running mate from a suitable tribe to top up the vote.

But that is all history now.

What we see playing out in the runup to the 2022 election is little chance of any Kikuyu candidate receiving the wholehearted support of the Mt Kenya region. And this massive vote bloc is likely to be split between the two presumed frontrunners, Deputy President William Ruto and former Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

The odd thing is that back in 2007, just three elections ago, these were the two men most bitterly vilified across the length and breadth of the Mt Kenya region. And Dr Ruto (who at present seems to have more support in that region than the former PM) was perhaps the more hated, with Raila coming a close second.

As I like to remind readers, such developments are welcome news insofar as they confirm that whatever may be said about political rivalries and hatreds within Kenya, these are nowhere near as intense as the irreconcilable tribal hatreds revealed every now and then in some of our neighbouring countries.

And it now seems that we are all set to take a crucial step even further than that, away from raw tribal rivalry for resources and towards a more class-based politics in which individuals vote for their economic interests rather than their tribes.

I say this because in previous election campaigns, a lot of so-called campaigning consisted primarily of hurling insults at the rival team. And the crowds really loved it.

There would be accusations that a certain presidential candidate 'belonged behind bars' given their ravenous theft of public funds. Alternatively, that certain candidates 'were supported by their foreign masters' to whose commercial interests they would definitely mortgage the nation if elected.

And other such colourful denouncements that play very well to a partisan crowd.

But this time it's all about Universal Basic Income (as proposed by Raila), which has been proved in some countries to be an effective tool in the fight against extreme poverty.

And 'bottom-up' economics, which is actually a perfectly respectable development theory, but is absurdly oversimplified by the Ruto team, being presented as an all-encompassing panacea for all our economic problems.

To an academic economist these proposals that are being put forward with great vigour, but devoid of any meaningful context, may seem to be simply laughable.

But for us, they actually represent a giant step forward. They are a key step down the road to the day when Kenyans will vote for their economic interests rather than vote blindly on the basis of tribe.

If indeed this type of campaign continues all the way to August 2022, then future generations will look back on the election to be held next year as a key turning point in the history of our nation: A decisive rejection of the toxic tribalism that has haunted Kenya right from the early years of Independence.