Kenya has had six presidential elections since the return to multiparty politics in 1991.
And though there have been all kinds of variables in these elections, there has also been one constant: first, that the Kikuyu community of the Mt Kenya region in Central Kenya (usually referred to generically as ‘The Mountain’) has always had a viable candidate for the presidency; and second, that this candidate has usually had a pretty good chance of winning.
We nowadays see the very large crowds that Deputy President Dr William Ruto draws when he visits Central Kenya. Well, those who are impressed by these crowds must be very young Kenyans who are not old enough to have seen the full force of the 1992 ‘Matiba Wave’.
This was the term used to describe the immense crowds that turned up for presidential candidate Kenneth Matiba – then at his messianic peak – when he toured his Central Kenya backyard. Matiba seemed all set to dethrone the serving president Daniel Moi in the 1992 election – and if he failed to do so, it was because the opposition vote was divided between three rather strong candidates in that election.
And in every subsequent presidential election, there was at least one potent candidate from The Mountain, who had every chance of winning. Kenyan presidential elections always end up with two frontrunners, in what is essentially a two-horse race: and in all previous elections, one of those frontrunners was a Kikuyu.
So, what is it that makes Central Kenya such a fertile breeding ground for Kenyan presidents?
I would say two things: First is that being the premier entrepreneurial community among indigenous Kenyans, the Kikuyus (and their ‘cousins’ the Meru and Embu) generally have more money than anyone else. And second is that there are very many of them. Collectively, they are the single largest vote bloc in the country.
Plus, they have always voted for “one of their own”.
So, between their superiority in numbers, as well as in fundraising – the two most important factors in politics – the Kikuyu of Central Kenya have always had a huge advantage in presidential elections.
However, these factors are not an undiluted blessing. Indeed, they are the very factors that can be used to stigmatise the Kikuyu community, as tragically happened in the 2007 general election, which gave rise to the chilling phrase, ‘41 against 1’.
But in the build-up to the 2022 election, we find that for the first time in the multiparty era, there is no dominant Kikuyu leader who we may take for granted as having all of Central Kenya behind him.
None of the candidates who have come out thus far seems capable of inspiring the same level of passionate regional support as previous Kikuyu presidential candidates. Apparently, there is a consensus that this time the Kikuyu have to give way to a candidate from elsewhere in the republic. And so that huge Central Kenya vote bloc is up for grabs.
On this I would say two things. First, it is a good sign indeed that Central is preparing to choose between various leading candidates from other regions. This should demolish, once and for all, the poisonous accusation that the people of The Mountain never vote for anyone, other than one of their own.
Second is that this takes us into uncharted territory. With the leadership of the single largest vote bloc in Kenya, more or less sitting out this presidential election, how can we really know which way the wind will blow? It may well be that those large crowds that turn out for Dr Ruto actually represent an unshakeable grassroots support in Central Kenya.
But on the other hand, it is entirely possible that the former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, will eat into Dr Ruto’s support there just enough to give him the extra votes he needs to add to what he stands to reap from his own regional strongholds.
So, to the question of how The Mountain will vote in 2022, the only correct answer is, “How can we know at this stage, seeing as we have never before had an election without a strong Kikuyu presidential candidate as one of the two frontrunners?”
