Citizens of Mt Kenya region are not excited about the sunset of Uhuru Kenyatta’s presidency. It is not that the fourth president has not favoured his base.
It is not even that the third president from Central Kenya reneged on a promise that bound the Executive duo. Politicians always betray each other. Their supporters rarely picket because of such deceptions.
There is more to the home turf disenchantment with the outgoing President. It’s beyond the collapse of the promise of ‘Uhuru Kumi Ruto Kumi’. UhuRuto glue was not stronger than their shared fear of the International Criminal Court, where they faced charges of crimes against humanity.
But the ending of the UhuRuto dalliance would have been different if, on Uhuru’s exit, there was a home turf successor. In which case, it would be Deputy President William Ruto’s Kalenjin base crying betrayal.
Before President Kibaki retired, there were signs Uhuru – the prince himself – would succeed the former Othaya MP. The strongman of the Kibaki era, John Michuki, had advised the House of Mumbi to support Jomo Kenyatta’s son.
Signs of a preferred successor were always present throughout Kibaki’s second term. To claim that Kibaki was neutral during his succession is to revise history. Uhuru, the Official Opposition leader in 2006, supported Kibaki’s reelection. The defection was a negotiated betrayal of Kanu, then the official opposition party.
Kibaki insiders, like Michuki and Njenga Karume, had a hand in Uhuru’s defection. The scion was being prepared for the future. The appointment of Uhuru as Deputy Prime Minister, and Minister for Finance, during the grand coalition government of Kibaki’s Party of National Unity and Raila Odinga’s ODM in 2008, was strategic.
The choice of Uhuru over Martha Karua, a senior politician at the time, was a Kibaki succession statement. Uhuru was being positioned for the Kibaki succession. Karua, then Gichugu MP, read the signs right: She resigned from the Cabinet to spite Kibaki and his protégé. She ran for president against Uhuru in 2013.
The reported divisions among Kibaki insiders was a decoy to cushion Uhuru against a national backlash. The idea of a third president from Central was another coming too soon. The reported preference for Musalia Mudavadi was a decoy. ‘Demons’ exposed this for what it was: Mudavadi was a Trojan horse.
Central Kenya is telling Uhuru this: ‘Kibaki left you to us. We followed you. We voted for you in 2013, and twice in 2017. Who are you leaving to lead us when you retire next year?’
The signs of a leadership vacuum began to show during Jubilee Party nominations in 2017. Senior politicians from Central lost to freshers, in what observers say was manipulated party primaries.
The Deputy President, as deputy Jubilee Party leader, was plotting his succession graph. William Ruto camped at Jubilee Centre in Parklands to ensure his preferred candidates won party primaries.
The disenchantment in the Mountain affirms a leadership modelling gap: The Kalenjin take direction from Ruto, who has been rehearsing since 1992. He was President Moi’s errand boy.
The Luo look up to Raila Odinga as the leader, but the former prime minister is also Baba to many across the 47 counties. It has taken Raila decades to grow his international tentacles and national esteem.
The Kamba take the cue from Wiper Democratic Movement leader Kalonzo Musyoka. He has been practising from 1986, much of the time under Moi, Kibaki and Raila.
Will the Kikuyu rely on parliamentary freshers Ndindi Nyoro, Moses Kuria, Kimani Ichung’wah and Rigathi Gachagua to cross the river?
Therein lies the subtext of the ramble in the Mountain: The reality of the failure of leadership modelling has stuck.
