Pro-hustler defections blunt Uhuru's influence on succession

Mass defections from President Uhuru Kenyatta’s side of the Jubilee Party divide have tested his bargain in the 2022 succession and talks with Raila Odinga's ODM party.

A number of the President's once-diehard defenders have defected to Deputy President William Ruto's hustler movement, which they say will benefit them more than Jubilee.

Insiders in the Deputy President's circle say more Uhuru men are on the way to Tangatanga, and it will only be a matter of time before they are identified.

They say Ruto’s net has been cast wide to catch big fish from the President's Mt Kenya backyard, as hopes dwindle the Building Bridges Initiative would bear fruit.

As elections are only 14 months away, the desire by the lot to make a comeback in 2022 is a cause of anxiety for the defectors.

Kiambu Woman MP Gathoni Wamuchomba, challenged why she chose the DP's side, said she "listened to the people".

“I am following what our people are telling us. They have affirmed that they support the Deputy President and who am I not to listen to them?” she asked.

Wamuchomba, leaving no doubt she had left the Uhuru side, said her voters “have also rejected the merger of Jubilee and ODM.”

The Kenya Women Parliamentarians Association chairperson had been one of the fiercest critics of Ruto from Central.

In the same week, the DP bagged Subukia MP Samuel Gachobe and Nakuru Town East MP David Gikaria. Githunguri MP Gabriel Kago also returned to the DP's camp.

Some MPs from Nakuru, Laikipia, Murang’a and Nyeri counties are also said to be warming up to the hustlers camp.

During a recent interview, DP Ruto said that he talked with several leaders who have not made their intentions public for fear of reprisals.

He has already walked out with over 100 MPs, who were elected under the party's umbrella after the historic merger in 2017.

Jubilee's series of by-election losses in the President’s backyard has exposed the ruling party’s weakness caused by inroads made by Ruto's United Democratic Alliance and its affiliates.

In Juja, the ruling party lost to the little-known People’s Empowerment Party led by Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria, a Ruto defender.

The Kiambaa MP by-election slated for July 15 will further determine the strongest side in the internal Jubilee fray.

The stakes are high and Ruto’s allies expressed confidence they would show the ruling party dust, saying it will be a repeat of the message in Juja.

Jubilee lost in Juja despite deploying a heavy political machine to retain the seat left vacant following the death of Francis Waititu.

President Kenyatta has over time shown he'd be keen on his succession but there are concerns the Jubilee fissures could diminish his influence.

Together with Raila, they are working on a formula for 2022 as confirmed by Jubilee secretary-general Raphael Tuju and his ODM counterpart Edwin Sifuna.

They are gearing up to counter the hustler side, which is said to have given a clear picture of its plan for the next vote.

ODM chairman and Suba South MP John Mbadi said the talks are yet to begin officially, but a lot is happening in the background.

"You will be briefed when they kick off. We haven’t started the talks yet,” the Minority leader told the Star on Thursday.

An election-winning formula is heavily grounded on numbers, considering the patterns of the 2007, 2013, and 2017 presidential polls.

With Uhuru's side getting thinner by the exodus, which is a culmination of internal strife in the ruling party, questions of clout arise.

Dr Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, says the defections are “certainly negatively impacting Uhuru as far as perceived strength is concerned".

The communications don said people might now think Uhuru is becoming a lame-duck president.

“If he is a lame-duck president who people say ‘might not even be able to win an election within his main base in Central’, he might not be seen as the clincher Raila really needs to get to the presidency,” Dr Nyambuga said.

Mbadi disagrees that the thinning numbers are anything to worry about, further expressing confidence that ODM needs just a little boost from Jubilee.

He further holds that ODM would be negotiating with Jubilee, “not Uhuru as a person".

“Uhuru is retiring and can only have an input like any other member. I don’t think he has any direct influence on the government that is coming. We are discussing with Jubilee.”

The Suba South MP said there is nothing ODM loses in the defections to the hustler side, as they never had their (defectors') support in the first place.

“There is nothing we are losing because we did not have them in the first place. However, the few we get, we are adding to our numbers and moving forward,” Mbadi said.

“We are not so concerned about who is going to remain in Jubilee so long as the party is still going to be there, with whichever numbers.”

“These are people we didn’t have. If we can have people we didn’t have, whether they are half, a quarter, or three-quarters, it doesn’t matter,” he said.

The ODM chairman said it was obvious people would leave the party since the deputy party leader is equally bolting, thus his supporters have to leave.

“There is a group that is already bolting. There is nothing strange about it. We will discuss and agree with those who are remaining,” Mbadi said.

Dr Nyambuga also agreed that whichever numbers ODM gets will be a plus for the party in 2022.

“Either way, that percentage that Uhuru brings to Raila might still be very critical for the ODM leader. We cannot negate that percentage. If he gets Raila 30 per cent, that is fine since Raila has his own natural base,” he said.

Prof Macharia Munene of United States International University said the defections don’t affect Uhuru since he is not a candidate in the next election.

“It doesn’t affect. Of course, he is a little depleted, but since he is not a candidate, we have people realign themselves to the areas they think they might benefit from.”

The USIU don said, “The President’s influence is still big – whichever way – but not as big as it was a few months ago, maybe because he is not a candidate.”

He is also of the view that the movements “are normal reactions by people who think they might the bandwagon of Jubilee endorsement".

“They are thus looking for some other political home, and would definitely be looking at what they think is a secure home,” Prof Munene added.

He observed that there would be more movement as politicians realign themselves to parties where they are safe.

“They will follow people. That is going to be here for some time, especially people who think they are not in Uhuru’s good books.”

He further holds that ODM has to worry about its own problems as they have suffered from the same movements.

Turkana Governor Josephat Nanok, once an ODM deputy leader, rallied several MPs to Ruto’s camp.

Munene said both camps need to contain what they think they are doing wrong such that people are moving out, though saying this is natural for any transitional politics.

(Edited by V. Graham)