On July 1, Somalia celebrates 61 years of independence and its slow re-emergence from what was a brutal 30 years of civil war.
On the same day the world’s emerging superpower, China, will mark the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party. It is hard to pick the connection but allow me to indulge you on why I think Kenya will be much richer to cultivate closer relationship with Somalia than alienate them.
In July 1921, a small, secretive gathering took place in the top floor of a girls’ school, empty in the summer holidays, in the French Concession in Shanghai.
It comprised of 13 Chinese delegates from different parts of the young republic created after the fall of the Qing dynasty a decade before. That was the insignificant birth of what is today’s mighty CCP.
After a century of humiliation, China is predicted to be the world’s superpower by 2028.
Somalia was also borne of a similar process. On the morning of May 15, 1943, 13 youth leaders met in a dingy traditional Somali house to form the Somali Youth League, which has been instrumental in the country’s road to independence and heralded it to what is commonly known as Somalia’s golden age.
Somalia and China have over the decades experienced wars, exploitation, and humiliation by Western powers, not the least the opium war of China and the Piracy in Somalia.
History never ends but what we can learn from this is that the shared bleak past of the two countries points to a potential extraordinary development of a Somalia that is emerging from a war, and why we will be the better cultivating a much closer and friendlier diplomatic relationship with the currently troubled neighbour.
Peaceful coexistence is more developmentally impactful than the unfortunate recurrent geopolitical tiffs.
While they appear to have addressed the recent disputes, and allowing flights to resume operations, there is much more the two countries can gain from a peaceful and friendly coexistence.
There are still some frictions fuelled by petty politics between the two states, not the least, the maritime dispute that has ended up in the International Court of Justice, which could instead be resolved in a neighbourly manner, not severing of ties.
The Western world has got Africa wrong, and it has served it well in its balkanisation and exploitation. Kenya and Somalia must realise that the Western world will continue getting them wrong, if they do not Africanise their problems and own the solutions.
Somalia is a strategic country for Kenya’s growth. With the longest coastline in Africa, its exceptionally enterprising people with abundant natural resources and the soon-to-begin exploration of oil, it is a country likely to emerge from its three decades of humiliation stronger. This is what Kenya must strategise to make the most of through a friendly relationship not antagonistic rhetoric.
In 1955, Kenya and Ethiopia signed a defence pact framed by our colonial masters to contain Somalia. For sotoo long, Ethiopia has been a proxy for Western powers in the Horn of Africa and has been serving foreign interests.
Ethiopia, particularly under the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi of TPLF was doing the dirty work for the West. In return, the international community overlooked Ethiopia’s human rights violations and crimes against humanity such as invasions of neighbouring countries, renditions, and extrajudicial disappearing of suspects.
Ethiopia’s geopolitics has since massively been altered by the last few years’ events.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who took power after the Oromo protests that heightened tensions in the country in 2015, has transmuted the political dynamics of Ethiopia. He has altered the software that informed its politics in the Horn of Africa and is working hard to nurture a closer political and economic relationship with the neighbouring countries, Eritrea and Somalia. He appears to be moving away from the 60 years pact with Kenya.
It is expected Abiy’s administration will sign a military pact with Somalia as it expands its bilateral agreements with Djibouti and Eritrea.
As the economic dynamics, political realities and security challenges rapidly change, Kenya must avoid becoming a regional recluse sleep walking into isolation.
Our East African partners appear to be forging a closer economic alliance as demonstrated through their infrastructure deals.
In 2016, Uganda announced plans to build a railroad that would connect Juba to another planned rail line from Kampala to the port of Tanga in Tanzania putting the Northern Corridor in jeopardy.
In 2011, Ethiopia signed a railway deal with Djibouti and has acquired stakes in Somalia ports. It is increasingly turning towards Somalia and Djibouti for trade and political relations.
In 2018 it, acquired 19 per cent stake in the port of Berbera. Kenya instead appears to antagonise its neighbours instead of taking advantage of our relatively stronger economy.
Ethiopia is a population powerhouse in Africa but as it fosters closer relationships with its smaller neighbours, it seems Kenya’s diplomatic differences with Somalia are widening.
Sharing a long border with Somalia, with a relatively less historical hostile military relations, hosting hundreds of thousands of its refugees and with the longstanding cultural connections between our two countries means we are better placed to exploit closer relationship with Somalia.
Kenya as a more stable country should lead the way, open its borders with Somalia, promote and pursue a deliberate policy of peace and reconciliation totap into Somalia’s economic potentials and improve our security.
In a multipolar world, where cooperation and not competition yields more economic and security dividends, Kenya should relook afresh at its relationships with neighbours.
