Uhuru should endorse Raila now to smooth 2022 transition

Let us agree today that we can commemorate all national days in Kisumu, if we want to tap into the positive energy and warm political vibe each time. Because by extending a warm heart to welcome the nation and its guests with such unparalleled fanfare on this year’s Madaraka Day, Kisumu cemented its place as the home of politics of maturity and reconciliation.

The music too was on point, if you forgive the rather heavy doses of sycophantic lyrics accompanying it. We can say without fear of contradiction that if the country was looking for a moment to temporarily forget all its problems and just have a party, Kisumu did not fail it at all.

Those who study body language, the spoken word and the unspoken hints agree that this was also the Handshake’s moment of glory. The two brothers, President Kenyatta and ODM boss Raila Odinga, brought their unity on a rock star tour, to a city just too willing to fete the duo.

If you ask the common man on the streets, rumour had it that the President would be endorsing the ODM chief. Well, he came just short. Though his promise to work with Raila “no matter what the future holds” may just be good enough in certain circles as an endorsement.

There is something else the President said in his speech that should form the basis of how he handles his transition from now. He mentioned that in agreeing to the Handshake deal, Raila never asked for anything in return. You can count the number of politicians in this country who could have done that, on the fingers of one hand, and you will end up using just one finger.

There are politicians and party leaders in this county, who in the same position would have demanded both the President’s kidneys, half of his land and half of the cabinet! It is not just the selflessness of Raila that should have stood out on this occasion, but the forgiving nature of his people, chanting praises to perceived enemies right outside the stadium. The President and his handlers, in looking for a favourable successor, will not find that combination anywhere.

Retiring presidents, especially in Africa, often make two grave mistakes. The first is to assume they can stuff the government and security agencies with their yes men, in the mistaken belief that they then will control the government by proxy in retirement. Experience has taught us that once the new president dispenses with the Bible on oath day, this myth falls like a house of cards.

The second is to wait until the actual swearing-in of the successor to even begin handing over government. It is inconceivable to expect another Mandela will pop up in our continent, so it is a stretch to expect our retiring presidents to smoothly 'Thabo Mbeki' their transitions, but there is inherent stability in transitions that begin earlier than the actual election.

Of course there is always the risk that whoever the president props up fifteen months before election may not get elected, but trying to gently manage the process with an eye on national unity is still far better than waking up on voting day hoping it all goes well,

We can be honest with the President at this juncture. If he had a better successor in mind, he wouldn’t be waltzing across the country with Raila, doing the bromance routine, just 15  months before a decisive election. And if indeed he is dead set on stopping his deputy ascending to the presidency, he cannot pretend that he will miraculously create a premier political player bigger than Raila, enough to defeat DP Ruto.

The gentlemen running those village parties and who think their alliance stands a chance, will disagree, but only because reality is not on the menu at their breakfast tables. Elections are first won by popular individuals before parties and alliances.

Knowing that he runs a much-divided government and country, and being at loggerheads with his deputy, Uhuru has no luxury of sitting on transitional decisions until the election. In his book, The Room Where It Happened, former Trump National Security Adviser John Bolton chronicles shocking chaotic scenes at the Trump White House where one couldn’t tell who was in charge of what, and everybody was doing everybody’s job.

The Uhuru State House may not be as chaotic, but among other things, the President’s almost-petulant behaviour in handling the recent appointments of judges, the rejection of some and the long delay in doing it, added to the alacrity with which his regime has disobeyed court orders. This points to a place where either advisers are ignored, or none exist! That is certainly not the sort of environment Kenyans want to approach the elections in.

If therefore the President has found a dependable partner in Raila, a man who commands support in half the country, based on figures from the past three elections, and someone who goes into every election with a proper head start, then it behoves Uhuru, out of an abundance of political responsibility, to show his hand and make his pick early.

Even though Raila asked for nothing when they struck their deal, the President must surely know that if he intends to support Raila and makes this indication now, he has to begin bringing Raila’s people into government. This will avoid the scenario the Kibaki regime encountered in 2003 when they had to do mass sackings of Moi’s people in order to create space for Kibaki’s people.

Indeed, the best period to study in order to avoid the same mistakes has to be Kibaki’s first term between 2002 and 2007. It makes no sense this late for the President to run a regime where every next appointment into key state institutions is someone from the same region as the President.

Even though Raila holds no elective position, the 'absence' of the DP within the corridors of power means that we are in an unprecedented situation, heading into an election where the President is retiring while the DP is an 'outsider'.

The only hope for Uhuru to make it right is to stand in broad daylight and announce that his brother Raila 'Tosha'. The music and enthusiastic chants that he enjoyed in Kisumu on Madaraka Day can gently escort him into retirement, while forming the soundtrack for the new regime’s entry into State House.

In Raila, he has the only dependable and predictable ally he can find in this land, and in Raila’s people, he has absolute confirmation that grudges are never on the menu. I can’t tell what more he wants, but he will most likely burn his fingers if he invests elsewhere!

(Edited by V. Graham)