Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho appears to be in a precarious position in his bid for the presidency next year, as a twin assault risks derailing his bid.
A cold war in ODM and a political onslaught by his critics at the Coast pose a major hurdle on his State House bid.
A recent exchange with ODM secretary general Edwin Sifuna over the outcome of the recent by-elections lifted the lid on the simmering political tensions between Joho and Chungwa House.
While Joho, the ODM deputy party leader, penned a statement warning against what he termed as 'extended celebrations' after the win in Bonchari by-election, Sifuna appeared to dismiss him.
“These by-elections are now gone and others are on the way. None of them will be indicators of what lies ahead on our politics,” Joho said in a statement also shared on Raila Odinga's Twitter handle.
However, Sifuna told him off Joho and retweeted Raila's earlier statement that condemned police brutality during the by-elections.
“This remains the party position,” Sifuna said in what appeared to be a political salvo directed at Joho.
The incident sparked questions on developments in ODM, and whether Joho has fallen out with his party leader ahead of the general election.
Governors Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya (Kakamega) will challenge Raila for the ODM ticket.
Oparanya has also made remarks on BBI, which depart from Raila and ODM on the referendum.
Political analysts opine that Joho faces an almost impossible bid to wrestle the ODM ticket from Raila, should the former PM throw his hat in the ring.
In what is likely to further heighten political tensions in ODM, Joho is said to have convened a meeting in Mombasa next week to deliberate on the region's political future.
The meeting, which will be held at the Vipingo Ridge, will be attended by Joho's allies from the region amid reports of a possible endorsement as Coast's political kingpin ahead of 2022.
His allies have say all has not been well in ODM, especially after the governor declared his interest in the ODM ticket for the presidential bid.
While Raila had in March told Joho it was his democratic right to run for President, the governor boldly said he was ready to challenge 'Baba' for the ticket at the ballot.
Mombasa deputy speaker Fadhili Marakani told the Star that Joho's bid for the presidential ticket had caused some jitters in the Orange party.
“Some people are uncomfortable with Joho's move because they fear his popularity,” Marakani said.
A senior ODM official told the Star that the tensions in ODM have caught Raila's attention and a meeting has been called to address the issues.
“The cold wars have caught the party leader's attention and very soon it will be addressed at a retreat,” the official said on condition of anonymity.
However, Joho's chief of staff Job Tumbo said the governor does not believe there are cold wars in the ODM party.
“The governor does not see these as attacks against him. He sees them as differences in opinion, which is allowed,” Tumbo said on Thursday.
On Wednesday, Joho also appeared to suggest he is good terms with Raila despite the glaring fissures in ODM.
“I have had numerous discussions with the former Prime Minister, which have left me convinced that the mission and the dream that we have chased unsuccessfully over the years is around the corner,” he told the Nation.
But even with this, his bid to become the Coast region political supremo faces threats from the Mijikenda, who are fronting his friend Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi.
The fresh bid to have Kingi as the region's kingpin and spokesman could also jolt Joho's ambitions and dim his influence, analysts warn.
The Vipingo meeting to endorse him will escalate the rivalry and battle for the control of Coast politics amid growing agitation for the formation of a regional party. While Joho says the region should remain in ODM, some leaders and opinion shapers are pushing for a homegrown party.
Joho’s critics maintain the region’s kingpin must come from the populous Mijikenda, to which Kingi belongs, giving the Kilifi governor a head start.
“The Coast region is fast gravitating towards Kingi as the country approaches the 2022 elections. Joho, politically speaking, has lost the ground to unite the region,” Mombasa-based political analyst Abdullahamani Mohamed said.
According to the 2019 national census, there are just under 2.5 million Mijikendas, the eighth ethnic group in Kenya.
Proponents of the idea argue that if then politics is about numbers, the unity of the Coast should start with the Mijikenda.
"His presidential bid is problematic in that if Raila, the party leader, decides to run — and he will — Joho’s ambitions shall be nipped in the bud,” warns Coast-based political analyst Kazungu Katana.
The Joho-Kingi rivalry has sparked debate about Coast region unity and the prospects of a homegrown party with a regional leader or spokesperson to drive their agenda.
Political analysts say the debate about Coast unity boils down to a singular conclusion — that the Coast, fatigued by opposition politics since 2007, wants to be in government in 2022.
“Joho’s presidential bid has only served to fuel the Coast region’s political divisiveness, especially because he wants to vie on the ODM ticket,” adds Katana.
However, Joho believes the region's interests at the national level can be realised through ODM, if it forms the next government
It is Joho's insistence to run on the ODM ticket that has fuelled rivalry with pro Coast-based politicians.
In March, Governor Kingi said the Coast people should be allowed to decide their own destiny, in reference to his spirited push for a Coast party.
Speaking at a rally in Kilifi attended by Raila, Kingi said there is no party without a base and asked why the ODM leader has remained silent when other regions such as Western and Eastern come together.
“Every party must have a base, though it must be a national party. We have seen ANC and Ford Kenya come together and, Baba, you did not say a word."
"We have seen Wiper and [Governor Charity] Ngilu’s party [Narc] come together but this was not called a threat to national unity. What is wrong when Kadu Asili, Shirikisho and USPK coming together? They all are national parties with a base in the Coast region. They are already registered. We are not forming any new party,” Kingi said.
That party, according to his reckoning, could then negotiate for coalitions with like-minded parties and leaders to form the next government.
Kilifi North MP Owen Baya said the Coast needs a charismatic leader who commands the following of the majority of the residents. He said a Mijikenda would be best suited to lead the region.
“The Mijikenda controls about 90 per cent of the votes in the Coast. It only follows that one of their own leads them,” he said.
BBI FACTOR
Some of Raila's allies have silently accused Joho of remaining conspicuously silent following the court ruling that annulled the Building Bridges Initiative.
They accuse Joho of reaping the handshake fruits without much support to the party, despite the ODM boss "sacrifices".
"It was Raila who salvaged his business when they were under state attacks but he appears to be ignoring Baba,” an influential ODM official said.
There is a petition in Parliament seeking to have a firm linked to Joho probed on how it was allocated land in the Nairobi Freight Terminal, near the SGR terminal in Syokimau.
The Kenya Railways handed the company a Nairobi Standard Gauge Railways goods facility in 2018. Before then, the Mombasa-based Autoport Freight Limited had for months been piling pressure on KRC to give it exclusive use of the facility.
There have been talk that Raila had intervened to have Autoport limited given the green light by KRC to use the NFT to handle its loose or bulk cargo transportation business.
Autoport was allocated 26 acres out of the total 36 acres at the NFT for a period of 45 years as from December 1, 2018.
