Opinion hawkers are on the loose. Politicians aspiring for elective positions are on cross-county test rides. Online armies are demonising views that advocate better governance. Rattled power brokers have panicked.
Handout-targeting lobbies are sprouting. Councils of elders are mobilising. Election furore, replete with conspiracies, has arrived in Homa Bay county.
Homa Bay was divided into blocs in 2012 for purposes of winning elections and sharing power. Three constituencies – Karachuonyo, Kasipul and Kabondo-Kasipul—the Rachuonyo clan—host the incumbent governor.
Rangwe, Homa Bay Town and Ndhiwa constituencies—Homa Bay bloc—host the woman representative. The senator is from the Suba bloc—Suba North and Suba South. Deputy Governor Hamilton Orata comes from the vote-rich Ndhiwa.
Suba South MP John Mbadi and Woman Rep Gladys Wanga, also advocates of the discredited six-piece voting pattern, have gubernatorial ambitions.
Otieno Kajwang' was the first senator after the zoning. Kajwang's successor is his brother Moses Kajwang', who chairs the Senate Public Accounts and Investment Committee. This committee treats the Homa Bay governor with velvet gloves.
The Senate is yet to summon Homa Bay Governor Cyprian Awiti to account for documented discrepancies in the use of devolved funds. The current leaders have stood by as the county gets run down—as confirmed by the Office of the Auditor General in its annual reports.
The architects of zoning are furious with Lake Basin Development Authority chairman Odoyo Owidi—the former teacher who abandoned chalk for business.
A simplified version of Mwalimu Owidi's view is this: That although the governor is from Rachuonyo, the three constituencies are not indebted to anyone. He says Rachuonyo will field a candidate for governor in the 2022 General Election, in spite of the zoning.
But Owidi's most unsettling opinion is this: That Rachuonyo and its allies will support one candidate from Rachuonyo. Rachuonyo people share direct clan affinities. Its three constituencies command 200,000 of 500,0000 county registered voters. Rachuonyo's potential ally and cousin, Ndhiwa, has 86,000 registered voters.
A united Rachuonyo can trade other county positions with allies to retain governor. The raw figures can be weaponised to counter the current push for exclusion. The tyranny of numbers is likened to the Gikuyu Embu Meru Association (Gema) advantage on the national stage.
Owidi's abhorrence of funds misuse and ambition-inspired exclusion is rational: When a leader fails, his mistakes should not be blamed on his clan. Those who imposed the incumbent should take responsibility for their blunders.
Political stupidity is always the brainchild of power brokers who manipulate incumbents. They cannot cheat all the people all the time. Clan is often the hapless victim of abuse of power.
Owidi says if rotational democracy is allowed, then all other elected leaders should quit in 2022. The leaders are furious. But they won't throw Awiti under the bus, demonise his clan, without sharing responsibility for his failures.
Published opinion polls from 2013, genuine or fake, place the incumbent among the least performing of the 47 governors. The governor is serving his second and last term. Homa Bay also features prominently among the most corrupt. There is a lot of evidence, which multiple whistleblowers have shared with corruption investigating agencies. There isn't much in Homa Bay to show the public got value for the Sh32 billion over the past seven years.
The funds could be more if local revenue and proceeds from private-public sector partnerships are considered. The informed public is waiting for the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission and the Directorate of Criminal Investigation to summon the 'owners' of the county.
Mwalimu Owidi's rattling view is this: Democracy and merit should rule, not exclusion that rides on false premises. Those who respect reason have no problem understanding this progressive view.
