Fake news-for-hire industry emerges as major threat to 2027 polls, study warns

The 2027 polls could be shaped by an increasingly sophisticated disinformation industry operating through social media, influencers and paid digital networks, a new study has warned.

The report, The Rise of Fake News Ahead of the 2027 Kenyan Elections, paints a troubling picture of a rapidly evolving information landscape: Fake news, political propaganda and coordinated online manipulation are becoming more organised and harder to regulate. The study is published by Germany’s Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, a German political foundation that seeks to consolidate and promote democracy.

It finds that Kenya is entering the election cycle amid an escalating crisis of ‘information disorder’ driven by the proliferation of social media platforms, declining trust in traditional media and the emergence of what researchers describe as a professionalised disinformation industry.

“The upcoming 2027 elections in Kenya face a critical challenge from a sophisticated and escalating crisis of information disorder, which threatens democratic stability and citizens’ ability to make informed decisions,” the report says.

The report adds that the 2027 elections represent a critical juncture for the country’s democratic stability, fundamentally tested by an escalating crisis of disinformation, misinformation and malinformation.

It also warns that the threat extends beyond isolated cases of misinformation and has evolved into a coordinated commercial enterprise. Online influencers and digital operatives are recruited and paid to push political narratives, attack opponents and manipulate public discourse.

According to the study, social media platforms such as TikTok, WhatsApp, X, Facebook and YouTube have become the dominant sources of political information, particularly among young people, effectively bypassing traditional media gatekeepers.

This shift has fundamentally altered how Kenyans consume news and engage with politics.

The report notes that Kenya’s youthful population and widespread smartphone penetration have accelerated the migration from traditional media to digital platforms, creating a new information ecosystem where content spreads rapidly, often without verification.

While the transformation has expanded access to information and empowered citizens to participate in public discourse, it has also created a fertile ground for disinformation campaigns.

“The proliferation of highly unregulated platforms like TikTok, which has become a fertile ground for hate speech and algorithmic amplification of political propaganda, poses unprecedented risks,” the report says.

“Combined with the financial instability of traditional journalism and a deteriorating environment for press freedom, digital space threatens to become the decisive yet unregulated battleground of the 2027 elections.”

The study points to the 2024 Gen Z-led protests against the Finance Bill as a turning point in Kenya’s digital political engagement.

Young activists used platforms such as TikTok, WhatsApp and X to mobilise supporters, share information and provide real-time reporting from demonstrations. Artificial intelligence tools were also deployed to simplify and explain complex legislative proposals to ordinary citizens.

However, the research cautions that the same digital infrastructure that enabled civic activism can also be exploited to spread falsehoods and manipulate public opinion.

“The infrastructure built for mobilising Gen Z can easily be co-opted by the disinformation industry,” the report warns.

One of the study’s most striking findings is the emergence of ‘disinformation-for-hire’.

Drawing on previous research by the Mozilla Foundation, the report says influencers are increasingly recruited through coordinated networks to execute fake news campaigns targeting specific individuals, institutions and political actors.

These operations are often organised through WhatsApp groups, where participants receive instructions and content to amplify online. Some influencers reportedly earn between $10 (Sh1,300) and $15 (Sh1,950) per campaign, creating financial incentives for the spread of deceptive content.

Researchers say the trend has transformed disinformation from a political tactic into a profitable business model.

The report also highlights growing concerns about the declining credibility and financial sustainability of traditional media institutions.

According to findings cited in the study, 62 per cent of journalists surveyed said financial constraints affect their ability to adhere to professional and ethical standards.

Media houses, facing shrinking advertising revenues and economic pressures, are becoming increasingly vulnerable to political influence and ‘brown envelope journalism’. This is where journalists receive payments from political actors in exchange for favourable coverage or suppressed reporting.

The study argues that these challenges have contributed to a widening trust deficit between mainstream media and the public, pushing more citizens towards social media platforms for news and information.

At the same time, journalists face growing threats both online and offline.

Female journalists are increasingly targeted by coordinated online harassment campaigns, while bloggers and digital commentators have faced intimidation and, in some cases, deadly attacks linked to their work.

During the Gen Z demonstrations, journalists were attacked by goons and police in the line of their work.

The Media Council of Kenya documented at least 24 cases of police brutality against journalists.

K24 and Kameme TV journalist Catherine Kariuki was shot in the thigh by police officers on July 16, 2024 in a case that was documented by the Committee to Protect Journalists and International Federation of Journalists.

Despite efforts by institutions such as MCK and independent fact-checking organisations, the report concludes that the country’s response mechanisms remain largely reactive.

Fact-checkers often struggle to keep pace with viral falsehoods, while encrypted platforms such as WhatsApp make monitoring and intervention difficult. By the time misleading content is debunked, researchers note, it has frequently already reached its intended audience.

To address the growing challenge, the report recommends a series of reforms. These include the establishment of an independent media sustainability fund, expanded media literacy programmes, stronger fact-checking infrastructure and greater accountability for social media companies operating in Kenya.

Researchers also call on digital platforms to invest in local moderation capacity capable of identifying Kenyan-specific political narratives, coded hate speech and misinformation that often evade automated detection systems.

Ultimately, the study says Kenya must address the deeper structural weaknesses driving the spread of disinformation, including the financial fragility of newsrooms, declining public trust in institutions and the growing commercialisation of online influence.