Kenya is likely to experience near-average to below-average rainfall in several key agricultural regions between June and August, while the Coast is expected to receive enhanced rainfall, according to the latest seasonal forecast released by the Kenya Meteorological Department.
The June-July-August (JJA) 2026 outlook indicates that the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and parts of Northwestern Kenya are likely to receive near-average to below-average rainfall accompanied by intermittent dry spells.
In contrast, coastal counties including Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall during the period.
The Department said the season is not a major rainfall period for most parts of the country, with many regions expected to remain largely dry due to the influence of the southeast monsoon winds.
"The South-eastern Lowlands and Northeastern Kenya are expected to be generally sunny and dry, while the Highlands East of the Rift Valley will experience light rainfall and fog," the department said in its outlook.
Counties expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall include Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.
Meanwhile, Turkana and Samburu counties are expected to remain largely sunny and dry, although isolated areas could receive light rainfall.
The forecast also shows that temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across most parts of the country despite June to August traditionally being Kenya's coolest season.
The increased probability of above-normal temperatures is expected in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, Northwestern and Northeastern Kenya.
However, cool and cloudy conditions accompanied by occasional fog are expected in the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, parts of the South-eastern Lowlands, the Rift Valley and Marsabit County.
The meteorological department further warned that strong southerly, south-easterly and easterly winds exceeding 25 knots are expected over parts of the Coast, South-eastern Lowlands, Northeastern and Northwestern Kenya.
The winds are associated with monsoon circulation patterns and the influence of the Somali Low-Level Jet and Turkana Channel.
According to the outlook, the expected weather conditions are likely to have mixed impacts across key sectors of the economy.
In agriculture, the near-average to below-average rainfall forecast in western Kenya and Rift Valley regions is expected to sustain crop production following favourable long rains received between March and May. Coastal farmers are also expected to benefit from improved soil moisture due to enhanced rainfall.
However, cool and cloudy conditions could slow crop maturity, while strong winds in eastern Kenya may damage crops and increase moisture loss through evapotranspiration.
The water sector may face challenges as below-average rainfall in major catchment areas could reduce river flows, groundwater recharge and reservoir levels. Water stress is also expected in the South-eastern Lowlands, Northeastern and Northwestern regions due to prolonged dry conditions.
The transport sector could experience disruptions from strong winds, which may affect marine activities and damage infrastructure such as roofs and power lines. Foggy conditions are also expected to reduce visibility on roads and at airports in highland areas.
Health experts have also been urged to prepare for possible increases in respiratory illnesses such as influenza and pneumonia in colder regions, while dust generated by strong winds in arid areas may aggravate respiratory and eye conditions.
In the energy sector, reduced rainfall in key water catchment areas may lower inflows into hydropower reservoirs, potentially affecting electricity generation. However, strong winds could boost output from wind power projects in affected regions.
The outlook follows a review of the March-April-May 2026 long-rains season, which showed that most parts of Kenya received near-average to above-average rainfall, while temperatures remained generally warmer than average across the country.
