How the war within United Opposition is a blessing for Ruto

Growing tensions within the United Opposition are increasingly becoming a political windfall for President William Ruto as the 2027 General Election edges closer.

Despite repeated assurances from its leaders that their unity is intact, recent events suggest widening rifts, divisions analysts say could significantly weaken the opposition’s ability to mount an effective challenge.

Former Deputy President and Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) leader Rigathi Gachagua has been at the forefront of defending the coalition’s stability.

“The Opposition remains united and committed to the goal of rescuing this country,” he said during a recent rally in Nyandarua. “We will present one strong presidential candidate.”

But behind the declarations of unity, friction has continued to surface.

The latest tensions erupted when DCP Deputy Leader Cleophas Malala accused Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya of working with the government to destabilise the outfit.

Malala alleged that Natembeya was collaborating with Ruto’s administration and the National Intelligence Service to influence upcoming by-elections in favour of pro-government candidates.

"President Ruto's government has seen that we are going to win all these by-elections and has gone ahead to bribe one of us by the name George Natembeya," Malala claimed during a rally in Kakamega on November 14 .

These accusations add to earlier disputes involving DAP-Kenya leader Eugene Wamalwa, who has repeatedly denied claims that he intends to join Ruto’s broad-based administration.

Speaking at a rally on November 12 , Wamalwa said he would only entertain any discussions with the government if they involved the entire opposition leadership.

However, observers argue that the ongoing public spats, whether real or exaggerated, are playing directly into Ruto’s hands.

Political analyst Joseph Mutua said the infighting is draining the opposition’s energy and weakening its cohesion at a critical time.

“As key figures trade accusations and form rival factions, the energy that would typically be directed towards holding the government accountable is instead consumed by internal battles,” Mutua said.

“For President Ruto, a fragmented opposition struggles to coordinate messaging, mobilise supporters or mount a unified challenge to government policies.”

Political commentator Fred Sasia, who believes the disunity allows the President to advance his agenda with fewer political hurdles, agreed with this assessment.

“Every fresh disagreement within the opposition strengthens this narrative, making it easier for Ruto’s allies to argue that the country is better off under his steady leadership,” Sasia said.

“The government gets to project itself as more stable and organised, while the opposition appears distracted and conflicted.”

Kathiani MP Robert Mbui, however, has downplayed the tensions.

“We, the United Opposition, are in the very early stages of coming together to prepare for the next election,” he said.

“Disagreements are normal, it takes time to form a team.”

Nonetheless, he admitted that the biggest challenge will be settling on a presidential flag bearer, running mate and distribution of other key positions, given that each leader believes they have the capacity to defeat Ruto.

Former Interior CS and Jubilee deputy party leader Dr Fred Matiang’i has also dismissed talk of deep divisions, terming the speculation exaggerated.

He denied claims of a fallout with Gachagua, saying that normal political differences were being blown out of proportion.

“We chose democracy, and democracy means people express themselves differently. People will ask questions of anyone, including me, and that means nothing,” Matiang’i said.

Despite these assurances, analysts argue that unless the United Opposition resolves internal tensions swiftly and firmly, Ruto will continue to benefit from a divided rival coalition.