The cold war between Raila and Oburu families

A fresh power tussle appears to be brewing in the ODM hierarchy, with simmering tensions between party leader Oburu Oginga and his late brother Raila Odinga’s family over the party’s direction.

The rift spilled into the open after Raila’s daughter, Winnie, fired a warning shot last week, claiming some people wanted to sell the party at night, a remark widely interpreted as targeting senior party officials.

A day later, the EALA MP fired again, this time more directly, demanding that ODM delegates decide who to lead the "complex" broad-based negotiations.

In a pointed speech, Winnie suggested that none of the current ODM leaders — including Oburu — understood the intricacies of the party’s broad-based arrangement with President William Ruto’s UDA except her father.

She proposed that ODM delegates should vote on whether the party should continue in the arrangement or not.

“When it came to the matter of the broad-based government, the people of ODM entrusted one person with managing that relationship, and that was Baba, Raila Amolo Odinga,” Winnie said.

“That relationship is complicated… Those taking it upon themselves to manage it now — are they capable? That is not for me to answer; it is for the people of ODM to answer.”

Winnie's remarks have stirred the political landscape, with a section of President Ruto's sympathisers launching a political attack on her.

There are fears that Winnie, a youthful and eloquent EALA MP, could team up with other firebrands and wage a war against the Ruto administration. 

Oburu, who was present at the ODM jamboree in Mombasa, downplayed the veracity of the statement, saying he will address the issue at home.

“I want to tell Winnie that we will speak about that in private, at home,” he said, lifting the lid on the simmering tensions.

An insider in the Odinga family told the Star in confidence of the existence of "a strong" feeling that Oburu was not the right candidate to succeed Raila at the helm of the party.

“We also heard about the concerns raised by Winnie. There is a feeling that Oburu was not the right candidate to take over the ODM machinery,” the insider said.

“In fact, [Kisumu Governor Anyang'] Nyong’o was being seen as the ideal candidate.”

Insiders say the simmering tensions point to deeper disagreements over succession politics and the future control of the Orange party, as pressure mounts ahead of the 2027 realignments.

The claims were corroborated by an MP from Nyanza, who confirmed existence of a feud between the two families despite the public display that all is well.

“I tell you that war [between the two houses] has been there all along but Jakom used to manage everything,” the second-term MP from Siaya told the Star.

On Tuesday, Oburu fired at unnamed persons he claimed were fighting him yet he was not having issues with them.

“I know I am being speared here and there but I am used to it… I didn’t campaign to be party leader. Those who are fighting me should stop, they are fighting someone who is not fighting them,” Oburu said on Tuesday during a burial in Rongo.

In another move that has raised eyebrows, Oburu has conspicuously skipped recent high-profile delegations condoling with the Odinga family at Opoda, despite his traditional role as the head of Jaramogi’s family.

For instance, the Siaya senator was missing when Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka led a 100-bulls march to Bondo.

He was also absent during a visit by former Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo.

Siaya Governor James Orengo instead stepped in, standing by Ida Odinga during the high-profile visitations.

Compounding the mystery, Oburu’s elder son, Jaoko Oburu, has in the recent weeks embarked on a series of meetings with organised groups across Nyanza.

His moves have fuelled speculation about his political intentions and whether the next generation of the Oginga family is positioning themselves for a bigger stake in ODM’s internal contests.

Political analyst Martin Andati said the Raila family — including Mama Ida Odinga and Winnie — appear to lack confidence in Oburu’s ability to fill Raila’s shoes.

“What Winnie and Mama Ida are suggesting is that Oburu cannot be like Raila,” Andati said.

“Raila was forceful, assertive, and capable of making tough decisions. He mastered political doublespeak. That was his style.

“Oburu, however, is more conservative and technocratic. They don’t believe he can make the tough calls the way Raila did.”

Opinions have however differed within the party on the interpretation of Winnie’s remarks, with some party stalwarts claiming the statement was misrepresented.

ODM deputy party leader Godffrey Osotsi came to the defense of Winnie, saying the EALA MP did not say anything offensive. 

Osotsi stressed the importance of structured consultation to spearhead engagements with President Ruto regarding the broad-based pact.

“What Winnie was trying to say is that any communication or dealings with the party has to be done through structures of the party , NDC being one of the key structures,” the Vihiga senator said.

“I don’t think there is anything wrong with it. She is simply saying instead of President dealing with individuals in the party, he needs to deal with the structures of the party and NDC is the highest structure of the party.”

Whatever Winnie said, he noted, was well within the Orange party’s constitution.

“I don’t think there is any problem with her statement, because our constitution provides for a National Delegates Convention, which is the highest decision-making organ of the party and even Baba before he died indicated that we shall have that meeting in March next year,” Osotsi told the Star on phone.

“The meeting will still be there. What we need to discuss is when we should schedule the meeting and the agenda of the meeting. It will still be there. The lower organs of the party all report to the NDC, the ultimate meeting will be the National Delegates Convention.”

Migori Senator Eddy Oketch also dismissed claims that Winnie was out to pick a fight with anyone, clarifying the NDC call was within the confines of the party’s constitution.

Oketch said the ODM law requires that the NDC ratifies and gives confidence to all appointments made by any organ of the party.

“Our laws require that all acting party members will be ratified at the NDC, that is what Winnie was expressing without picking a banter with anyone,” Oketch said during an interview with KTN on Monday.

“There was no question on the issue of the broad-based government. I don’t think that this is what Winnie Odinga was questioning because she is committed to the broad-based government, as many of us are.”

The senator, however, insisted that Oburu Oginga will continue with the broad-based engagements with the concurrence of the relevant party organs.

“Oburu will lead that relationship (broad-based government) based on the organs of the party,” Oketch stated.

“A number of times, Raila Odinga was clear about the Central Committee making decisions, including the broad-based relations. Even when the 10-point agenda was crafted, it was not done by Raila but the Central Committee, and the resolution was read by Hon Edwin Sifuna.”

INSTANT ANALYSIS

EALA MP Winnie Odinga has stirred controversy with her recent call to have the NDC handle the broad-based engagement. Critics argued that the remarks were a confirmation of a cold war within the Odinga family, claims that most ODM stalwarts have dismissed. Raila was regarded as the enigma of the country’s politics. He dominated politics for decades and served as the country’s second Prime Minister.