Nearly half of Kenyans expect that former Prime Minister Raila Odinga will not support President William Ruto in the 2027 general election.
According to the latest poll by TIFA, 46 per cent of Kenyans believe Raila will abandon President Ruto ahead of the 2027 election.
This segment also believes that Raila will rejoin the opposition after quitting his current political cooperation with President Ruto.
Of these, 28 per cent expect Raila to break ties with Ruto and run against him in the 2027 presidential race.
In contrast,
18 per cent believe he will leave Ruto but support another presidential
candidate within the opposition coalition.
The TIFA poll explored public attitudes toward the Broad-Based Government (BBG) and how these perceptions are likely to shape the 2027 political landscape.
The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 6, 2025, among 2,024 respondents across nine regions: Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt. Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift, and Western.
It was carried out through telephone interviews, using contact information gathered during earlier face-to-face, household-based interviews.
The interviews were conducted primarily in Kiswahili, with some in English.
The survey
has a margin of error of +/- 2.17 per cent.
According to the poll, 38 per cent of Kenyans believe Raila will support Ruto’s re-election, while 18 per cent explicitly oppose this expectation.
“Indeed, even more than one-third of BBG supporters expect that he will have turned his back on the current BBG arrangement by rejoining the Opposition,” the TIFA report states.
Among BBG supporters, 25 per cent expect Raila to abandon Ruto.
Some 13 per cent believe he will remain aligned with the President.
Among those who oppose the BBG, 53 per cent believe Raila will return to the opposition by 2027, regardless of whether he runs for president again.
Of these, 22 per cent believe he will run.
Some 31 per cent believe he will support another opposition candidate.
