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Why Western, Coast and Northeastern will be key battlegrounds for 2027

The two camps will be fighting for the over 2.2 million votes in Western

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by ELIUD KIBII

News07 March 2025 - 15:30
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In Summary


  • On one side of the political divide is President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, who signed a cooperation deal on Friday.
  • On the other side of the divide are impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Martha Karua Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and DAP-K’s Eugene Wamalwa.

President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga sign a cooperation agreement at the KICC on March 7, 2025/ RAILA ODINGA/X
Coast, Western and Northeastern regions are emerging as the political battlegrounds where President William Ruto and the Opposition will have a major tussle for the presidential vote.

On one side of the political divide is President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga, who signed a cooperation deal on Friday.

Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi, National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula (Western) Mining CS Hassan Joho, Senate Speaker Amason Kingi (Coast) and Environment CS Aden Duale (Northeastern) are on the president’s corner.

On the other side of the divide are impeached Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, Martha Karua Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka and DAP-K’s Eugene Wamalwa.

Also in this team is Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya from Western.

Former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiangi has announced that he would join the team in the next one month.

The two camps will be fighting for the over 2.2 million votes in Western — as of 2022 IEBC data— comprising 841,139 in Kakamega, 644,233 in Bungoma, 406,569 in Busia and 304,765 in Vihiga.

Trans Nzoia, which is geographically in the Rift Valley but has a huge Luhya population has an estimated 395,000 voters.

The six coastal counties have a total of 1.96 million registered voters, according to the 2022 IEBC data, while Northeastern had 882,677.

If the Ruto-Raila arrangement works through, they are likely to have under lock and key the the Rift Valley and Nyanza voting blocs.

However, the Rigathi and Kalonzo axis are likely to win Central and Eastern regions.

President Ruto and his allies were on a one-week ‘development tour’ of the Coast region, where they launched projects and held public meetings in Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale and Lamu counties.

During this tour, regional leaders vowed to back Ruto in 2027.

Speaker Kingi and Joho last Wednesday drummed up support for Ruto in Kilifi, saying the 2022 hostility against the President is history.

“When I look ahead politically, I see Joho has lowered his gun, Governor Mung’aro has also lowered his gun, I see Amina Mnyazi has also lowered hers,” Kingi said.

CS Joho asked residents to back Ruto come rain or shine in his “national unity bid”.

In courting the region, President Ruto called for unity in his address to Kilifi residents, who largely voted for Raila in 2022.

“Unity is strength. We were in different political camps during the elections but we are standing together because it the important thing to do so that we can address the challenges we face in Kenya, “Ruto said.

Prior to his Coast region tour, the President was in Northeastern, where he camped for four-days, covering Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo counties.

During the visit, the President reiterated the government’s commitment to transform the region by implementing key infrastructure projects.

Northeastern leaders expressed support for the President, especially hailing him for scrapping the vetting of applicants for citizenship documents — IDs and passports.

In January, the President embarked on a five-day tour of the Western Kenya region, where he held political meetings and launched projects.

The opposition has also started making forays in some of these regions.

Kalonzo Musyoka was early this month in Malindi, Kilifi County, where he opened a Wiper Party office.

Kalonzo also held meetings in Changamwe and Likoni in Mombasa.

Governor Natembeya, who was elected on the DAP-K ticket, is leading the “Tawe movement”, a campaign against Mudavadi and Wetang’ula in Western region.

Wamalwa has also been holding political activities in the region, in particular Bungoma County.

On Saturday, Wamalwa held a leaders’ meeting with elders from the community clans, professionals and clergy in Bungoma.

“The consultations, blessings and guidance of elders in any community before embarking on a major journey such as the 10th August 2027 presidential one, are critical,” Wamalwa said.

Gachagua has also warned Western Kenya against being fooled by the President, saying he is using the same strategy to hoodwink them.  

"I want to tell the people of Western Kenya to be very careful and learn from us. The President was here for five years, spending six days a week in the Mt. Kenya region, which is how he convinced us to vote for him. You are just being wooed the same way he wooed Mt. Kenya region,” Gachagua told his followers in a Tik Tok session.

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