Many leaders, especially from the Mt Kenya region, have remained tight-lipped as the tussle rages on. They fear that publicly taking sides could prove costly if their side loses.
Most are still believed to side with President Ruto but insiders say Gachagua’s brand of politics – openly advocating the interests of the region – will undoubtedly find favour with voters.
Gachagua has been widely criticised for what detractors have called tribalism for championing for Mt Kenya-friendly policies, including the one man, one shilling policy on revenue sharing.
Some of Gachagua’s allies have also been critical of the Finance Bill 2024, which if passed is expected by many to increase the cost of living.
Gachagua has dared challengers to a political duel, taking the war to Mt Kenya.
“To all leaders in this region, all politics is local. Listen to the ground. And leaders of this region who want to fight unity, don’t speak in Western, don’t speak in Rift Valley, come and speak here,” he said in Nyeri last week.
A woman MP from Mt Kenya said residents have “adopted a wait-and-see approach” as they weigh their options.
“With politics being what it is and from the experience of the Jubilee days, I better not give my position on this subject,” the lawmaker said.
She described the falling out of the leaders as a political hot potato.
Jubilee split in a similar fashion and Mt Kenya leaders allied to then-President Uhuru Kenyatta were handed a humiliating defeat by the UDA wave that swept the region in 2022.
Another vocal lawmaker, who was among Gachagua’s top defenders, opted for silence.
“Ask me questions about the muguka ban or the upcoming budget speech,” the MP told the Star when asked about the fights.
Two MPs, one from Nakuru and another from Nyandarua, said it was still early to comment on the row, saying ‘its basis still remains a mystery.’
Gachagu’s critics, however, are well known.
The group includes Kikuyu MP Kimani Ichung’wah, Kiharu’s Ndindi Nyoro, Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru, Nairobi Governor Johnson Sakaja and Laikipia East MP Mwangi Kiunjuri.
Gachagua's backers include Nyeri Governor Mutahi Kahiga and Embakasi North MP James Gakuya.
During a recent meeting in Nandi, Ichung’wah called out leaders trying to force people to take a particular political route, in what was seen as a broadside against Gachagua.
“Don’t try to force people to follow a path you have chosen. Where are you leading us, yet we have a leader in President Ruto? He has earned respect, even in the most powerful nations in the world. That is the kind of leader we want to emulate,” the Majority leader said.
Four Cabinet Secretaries, including Kithure Kindiki, Musalia Mudavadi, and Aden Duale have also disagreed with the Deputy President.
Governor Kahiga, however, has pledged to firmly stand behind Gachagua.
He warned of serious ramifications should the DP be treated the same way President Ruto was treated during President Uhuru Kenyatta’s tenure.
But as the row escalates, the Star has established that not even Nyeri leaders want to speak in the open about the row.
A Mt Kenya senator who was vocal about supporting the DP has since gone slow on commenting publicly about the issues of contention.
The Star has established, through conversations with some of the affected politicians, that they fear reprisal for taking a public position in the row.
Moves by the political figures, more so from the mountain, in trying to avert a backlash from either of their two leaders, has illuminated the tension.
Their concern is that the President has tools he can unleash against any opposition from within, while his deputy could marshal a campaign against his detractors.
Therefore, some political leaders will accompany Gachagua to political functions on one day and pledge their allegiance to President Ruto the following day
Many leaders who accompanied Gachagua to a meeting where he restated the call for Mt Kenya unity dashed to the President’s meeting the following day.
Some Meru leaders recently disagreed with Gachagua on what they termed tribal politics and backed President Ruto.
They, however, deny any knowledge of a political falling out in UDA
"We have not seen any split between the President and his deputy... The DP seeing off the President to Korea means they are together,” Igembe South MP Paul Mwirigi said.
He was joined by MPs Rahim Dawood, Dorothy Ikiara, Mpuru Aburi, Julius Taitumu, Dan Kili, and Moses Kirema.
Political pundits say Kenya Kwanza leaders are between a rock and a hard place as they have benefited from both Ruto and Gachagua.
Among the beneficiaries of Gachagua’s support is EALA MP Kanini Kega.
Gachagua was said to have influenced Kega’s election at a time his Azimio affiliates appeared to back other candidates
“It's quite a challenge for them, given the fact that the fallout came sooner than expected,” political analyst Martin Andati said.
“Most of them are now forced to strike a balance between the two, lest you lean on one side too much and burn your fingers,” he said.
Professor Gitile Naituli said it was “hypocritical for the persons in government to call for the unity of the same people who united to give them the instruments of power.
“Truth be told, they are calling the people of the region to unite to defend their positions of power since their master has threatened their power by looking for new supporters,” the ex-NCIC commissioner said.
He said if the power balance was not disturbed, the leaders urging unity “should be at the forefront of rejecting oppressive policies.”
For pundits, how the leaders will act on the Finance Bill 2024, or back people-friendly policies will be a key determinant of to which side they are loyal.
Debate on the Finance Bill is expected to start immediately after the budget speech by the National Treasury CS Njuguna Ndung’u
