President William Ruto is likely to get a smooth sailing in opposition territories in 2027 thanks to the new-found dalliance with Opposition leader Raila Odinga.
The President's signal that he is backing the Azimio leader for the top African Union job has softened the restive Nyanza bastion, something pundits argue may translate to support in his re-election bid.
Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai said Ruto stands a chance to inherit the ODM chief's support base in the next general election.
The AU chairman seat is a full-time job and occupants are expected to maintain neutral stance in the local politics in their countries, a requirement that would exit Raila from the local politics.
“If Baba is not in the race in 2027 and given between [Wiper leader] Kalonzo [Musyoka] and Ruto, ODM supporters would easily go for Ruto. ODM supporters would trust Ruto over Kalonzo any day,” Alai said.
The vocal city politician was responding to the pictures of Ruto and Raila in Uganda after having talks with President Yoweri Museveni on Monday.
Awendo MP Walter Owino – a Raila confidant – however cautioned that it may be premature to assume the Opposition zones would automatically switch to Ruto.
According to the second-term MP, the President must convince the regions through various development projects if he is to win their support.
In a telephone interview with the Star, Owino was reluctant to draw correlations between Ruto backing Raila’s AU bid and local political realignments.
“I don’t want to say that this thing (AU support) has got any bearing on local politics for now, this is because the support he (Raila) is looking for from Ruto does not translate to convincing our people to start walking or working with Ruto,” he said.
“Ruto has to do what he promised that he will do for Kenyans, let him initiate development projects that he has been talking about in Nyanza, because even if Raila was to tell us to support Ruto, he has to tell us what Ruto has done to us and I do not want to think that being endorsed to AU is one of those things.”
Following the Azimio leader's formal declaration that he will be running for the AU Commission chairperson’s job, there has been a wave of excitement in Nyanza.
Last week, the head of state was accorded a red carpet reception in Homa Bay county, signalling a change of heart in the region.
For the first time, almost all the ODM MPs who had in the past snubbed the President’s forays were available to receive him and freely mingled with him.
Owino says the President must woo the region with life-impacting projects if he has to count on their support.
“If I were Ruto I would take advantage of the relationship with Raila to deliver then next time he will be coming telling us what he has done for us despite not voting for him,” he said.
The President has also been on a massive charm offensive in regions that largely voted for the Opposition in the last polls in a clear scheme to broaden his political networks.
Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo has, however, dismissed any threats to Opposition unity on the Raila and Ruto dalliance.
“Azimio is intact, affiliate parties are intact and we will face Ruto in 2027,” he said.
Other quarters also view Ruto’s support for his political rival as a strategy to cast his re-election net wider as he conquers new territories to smoothen his second-term quest.
The President has been banking on the populous central Kenya for his political survival, a region that is credited for his victory against the handshake duo of Raila and retired President Uhuru Kenyatta.
Ruto is keen on penetrating political rival territories, including Raila’s heartland of Nyanza, and consolidating Western as his Plan B should Mt Kenya region flip.
“It is clear there are issues in Mt Kenya that President Ruto cannot wish away. The succession wars and the infighting in UDA over Ruto’s 2027 running mate is just the tip of the iceberg,” political analyst Dismus Mokua told the Star in a recent interview.
Mokua said the fissures in the region could have forced him to find a strategy to woo the Opposition.
“The year 2027 is still very far away and the formations are yet to become pronounced. The political signals, however, point to how they will tilt the presidential contest,” he said.
