MWAMISI: Raila, Kalonzo growing unpopular as we head to 2027

Kalonzo has therefore been in active politics in Kenya for more than 40 years.

On the other hand, Raila Odinga has been active in Kenyan politics for about the same period because his agitation is traced back to 1982.

Prolonged campaigns by the same actors can definitely lead to voter fatigue and negatively changing perceptions.

This is because, over time, voters become weary of the continuous political coverage, advertisements and debates involving the same people, which diminishes their engagement and interest in particular candidates.

This is an advantage that Uhuru had over Raila in 2013 and which Ruto exercised over him in 2022 when Ruto was taking his first shot at the presidency.

Enthusiasm around Raila and Kalonzo has waned over the years across the country, despite their vicelike hold on politics of the regions they hail from.

A candidate who has been in the race for a long time may experience a decline in enthusiasm from both supporters and the general public.

Maintaining the initial momentum and excitement becomes challenging as time goes on. This is because people discover more about the weaknesses of politicians such as their idiosyncrasies, promises not kept, and their failures.

The best chance that Kalonzo had at becoming president was perhaps in 2007, but Raila unscrupulously torpedoed him through the famous ‘nyundo’ heckling at Khadija grounds in Mombasa which subsequently led to the fallout where Kalonzo stuck with the ODM-K party and Raila bought back the party.

Kalonzo was seen by many Kenyans as a breath of fresh air in Kenyan politics and leadership.

His approach and weakness in private political communication led him into building an outfit dominated by his tribemates and weak nationally, something he has never recovered from despite his party morphing into the Wiper Democratic Movement.

While Raila managed to build a Kenya-wide political machine, he has failed a record five times. Running for office is physically and emotionally demanding. Politicians who stay in the race for an extended period may face burn-out, which can affect their performance, decision-making, and overall effectiveness as a candidate.

It was clear in the 2022 campaigns that Baba had lost his mojo, determination, and desire for the leadership of Kenya, no wonder there is push within Azimio for him to drop his agenda and support someone else in 2027, something which is absolutely difficult because his political business might take a hit in the Nyanza region and beyond.

Kalonzo himself has faced burn-out and frustration. In the last elections, Azimio relegated him to number three. There was actually no guarantee Kalonzo would secure a government position had Azimio won, because it all would depend on Raila and Martha Karua’s political will. Again, extended campaigns often mean prolonged exposure to media scrutiny. Politicians may find themselves under constant examination, with every aspect of their personal and professional lives subject to intense scrutiny.

This scrutiny can lead to increased stress and pressure. When, for example, Kalonzo’s party nominated his son for the East African Community Parliament, there was outcry in the Ukambani region and Kenya generally because people considered that move a little selfish.

The same was the case when the ODM nominated Raila’s daughter Winnie. This scrutiny leads to a loss of public confidence in politicians because the actions are exposed in a way that sends negative but powerful subliminal messages to the masses. Even when they try to package themselves as social democrats or fair people will remember these incidents and others like ‘Men in Black’ at Kasarani when Raila interfered with his own party nominations.

The political landscape has also morphed; it can evolve rapidly. Issues that were relevant in 1997-2013, primarily reforms, have lost prominence and new challenges continue to emerge. Raila sustained the reforms and change debate beyond 2010 even with the promulgation of a new Constitution.

Kalonzo is seen as one who does not represent change, his major burden being Raila’s powerful public communication attacks on him when they duelled before 2013. Unfortunately, words such as ‘watermelon’ stuck in people’s minds and he has never hacked a perception-changing solution to that.

These are challenges that candidates who stay in the presidential race for too long struggle with and which prevent adaptation to changing dynamics.

Kalonzo and Raila must face financial strain: Running a campaign is expensive, and staying in the race form an extended period can strain campaign finances. The political parties generate funds through fees paid for tickets and also allocations but these are not inexhaustible. Donors may become less willing to contribute if they perceive the campaign as losing viability or if the candidate’s messaging becomes stale over time.

The two have also been out of government for a long time, especially Kalonzo who has about 15 years out in the cold.

You can also note an inability of Kalonzo to connect with evolving issues. A candidate who remains in the race for an extended period may find it challenging to address emerging issues effectively because they lack enthusiasm, focus and concentration.

The electorate’s priorities keep shifting, and candidates must be able to adapt their messaging to remain relevant. This is an area in which Kalonzo performs dismally. On the other hand, Raila is seen by analysts as a political opportunist who will attach himself to prevailing conditions to hoodwink the public.

It is almost impossible for Raila and Kalonzo to get good control of internal campaign dynamics. Names such as Matiang’i and Kibicho were thrown into the discussions when matters about Azimio organisation were raised in 2022.

It appeared that Raila and Kalonzo’s own men were clutching at straws yet they were supposed to be hands-on and perfectly aware of the goings-on. Disagreements, fatigue, and frustration arose among staff members, potentially leading to internal conflicts that affected overall campaign cohesion. Matters of money were said to be a hot potato in Azimio.

There is still much negative public perception for Azimio; no wonder recent polls showed UDA is still the most popular party in the country. Raila and Kalonzo, who have stayed in the race for too long, might be seen as overly ambitious or unwilling to gracefully exit the political stage, a perception detrimental to their images.

There will definitely be fallouts within Azimio because potential funders such as former President Uhuru Kenyatta will also have preferred candidates for key positions and Kalonzo and Raila people are bound to also clash. 

 

The writer is a political commentator