- In a three month-forecast ending July, Met director Dr David Gikungu said Rift Valley highlands and Lake Victoria region will continue to receive rainfall in June.
- Last week, the WMO, an arm of the United Nations, said that the high temperatures being experienced signal a return of El Nino.
Most parts of the country will continue to have rain in June, the Met department says.
May usually marks the end of the long-rains season.
In a three month-forecast ending July, Met director Dr David Gikungu said rains will continue next month in the Rift Valley highlands, the Lake Victoria region and areas bordering Uganda.
However, rains will cease end of this month in some areas, such as Ukambani, Taita Taveta and parts of northeastern.
The three-month forecast was issued before the World Meteorological Organisation and several weather agencies worldwide said they are sure of a strong El Nino anytime from next month.
“Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi county and parts of the Southeastern lowlands (areas bordering Nairobi and Central regions) are expected to receive rainfall in May while June and July are expected to be generally cool and cloudy with occasional light rains,” Dr Gikungu said.
“The Northeastern region is expected to receive rainfall in May and early June and remain generally dry for the remaining part of the forecast period,” he said.
However, Dr Gikungu noted the dry season that comes after the long rains in Kenya might be interrupted by the El Nino rains.
He said the average temperature will be higher than usual over the whole country during the forecast period.
On Monday, the US’s National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa) said one of its satellites had captured a series of sea waves that are widely recognised as an early warning of an upcoming El Niño.
The El nino significantly influences global weather patterns, bringing heavy rains into Kenya and dry weather in most parts of the world.
Last week, the WMO, an arm of the United Nations, said the high temperatures being experienced signal a return of El Nino.
“The world should prepare for the development of El Niño, which is often associated with increased heat, drought, or rainfall in different parts of the world. It might bring respite from the drought in the Horn of Africa and other related impacts but could also trigger more extreme weather and climate events,” said WMO Secretary General Prof Petteri Taalas.
He said heavy rainfall may be experienced in the Horn of Africa countries including Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia; parts of southern South America, the southern United States, and central Asia.
According to East Africa Community CS Rebecca Miano, the rains are likely to reduce food scarcity.
Currently 4.4 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance but the figure is expected to drop drastically.
CS Miano said despite pronounced recovery across the ASAL counties, the food security situation is yet to record satisfactory improvement.
“This is because there is often a time lag between recovery from drought and food availability at the household level. As a result, the number of people who needed assistance according to the short rains assessment (SRA) of 2022 with regard to the provision of food was 4.4 million,” she said.
“This figure is expected to drop drastically when the long rains assessment report is done by the end of June 2023.”
Miano said acute malnutrition among expectant mothers and children below the age of five years still persists.
She, however, noted that the number of children suffering from malnutrition has generally reduced.
“In 17 counties, malnutrition remains above average with five counties namely, Garissa, Kilifi, Laikipia, Makueni and Meru recording a worsening trend. Meanwhile, Embu, Kajiado, Kwale, Kitui, Mandera, Nyeri, Narok, Tharaka Nithi, Wajir and West Pokot have recorded considerable improvement,” Miano said.
According to the latest report by the national drought early warning system, there was flash flooding across many parts of the ASALs.