Azimio leader Raila Odinga has remained sanguine that he will deliver the country’s third liberation, an economic revolution, despite the growing rebellion in his backyard.
The third revolution involving mass protests may not be the charm but the nail in the coffin.
During the campaigns, the Opposition chief pledged the third liberation — an 'economic revolution'— if he won the presidency. He has remained adamant in his revolutionary convictions, even after losing.
“We will deliver to Kenyans the third liberation. Several years since we attained Independence, we are still struggling to address poverty, illiteracy and sickness,” Raila said a day after he introduced Martha Karua as his running mate on May 16, 2022.
On Monday, Raila will lead his supporters in countrywide protests against President William Ruto whom he has accused of failing to live up to its promises of lowering the cost of living among other pledges. Lowering the cost of living is complicated and doesn't happen overnight.
The first liberation was the independence war against colonial rule. The second was the struggle for human rights, multi-party politics and a new Constitution.
The second liberation drew hope from world events such as the November 1989 collapse of the Berlin Wall.
Prominent figures in the struggle for multiparty politics were Raila, Karua, lawyers Gitobu Imanyara, Paul Muite, John Khaminwa and Gibson Kamau Kuria, former Meru Governor Kiraitu Murungi, former Cabinet ministers Kenneth Matiba and Charles Rubia, governors Peter Anyang’ Nyongo and James Orengo.
Others were the Nobel Laureate Wangari Maathai [deceased] and author Ngugi wa Thiong’o.
The government’s crackdown on the second liberation was relentless but in December 1991, former President Daniel Moi finally announced the repeal of Section 2A of the Constitution, which had enshrined a one-party State.
Soon after, about 10 political parties were registered, including the Democratic Party, Ford Asili, and Ford Kenya among others
As pushes for the third liberation intensifies, Raila and Karua seem abandoned by personalities who were with them during the second liberation.
On March 12 this year, Kiraitu censured Azimio leaders for calling for mass action over thehigh cost of living.
The former county boss said the high cost of fuel, which the leadership has cited among grounds for their street protests, is something beyond government control.
"The price of oil is not determined in Kenya, we buy oil from outside. No matter how long you demonstrate, be it months or years, the Arabs selling oil are not even aware there are protests here," Kiraitu said.
Kiraitu pledged his support for Ruto saying he is glad the head of state has taken steps to address the fuel issue by sending someone to the Gulf.
Orengo (Siaya) and Nyong’o (Kisumu), who were vocal during the second liberation, have not been visible in the push to reject Ruto’s administration.
Political analyst Fred Sasia noted that the first two liberations had genuine and justifiable agendas.
“The end goal was clearly defined and although through a lot of suffering and unlawful detention of the liberation heroes, they achieved the goal and Kenya made tremendous steps politically and democratically,” he said.
Sasia pointed out that after 1997 elections, there has been a constant mention of a third liberation, which he said has lacked a specific goal and focus.
“Other than the 2007 post-election violence that led to the promulgation of the new Constitution in 2010, all the succeeding mass actions have been informed by selfish ambitions," he said.
"They have always come after an election, and it's the poll losers who have gone to the streets without having a clear goal and focus,” he said.
Sasia said the Azimio team is calling the planned Monday demonstrations an economic liberation, but it's more tainted by selfish individual goals.
“The cost of life, which is a genuine concern, is being used as emotional whip. The main agenda are issues revolving around the just concluded elections,” he stated.
However, Sasia said Raila doesn't need politicians to survive, only his supporters.
“History has shown us that he has ardent political followers who are ready to die as long as the demigod remains relevant. The President should accept to make the opposition feel important, and that shall be for the good of the country and the people of Kenya,” he suggested.
Luanda MP Dick Maungu said Raila is genuine in his push for a third liberation and has the backing of the most important group — the people.
He said Kenyans are going through tough economic times and the current regime does not seem eager to address the problem as it promised during campaigns.
“People will come out in huge numbers because they want the high cost of living lowered. Kenyans can hardly put food on the table,” he said.
Maungu said Raila was a common figure in the second liberation and together with others, they were detained and tortured but they eventually freed the country. “Those fighting for economic liberation will also succeed, I can assure you,” the legislator said.
He said the current regime has been in office long enough and Kenyans ought to be seeing changes in their lives.
Pundits have said third liberators will need to re-orient the voting population to move away from ethnic to issue-based politics.
They agree that the liberators will have to propose strategies to address ethnic competition for resources such as jobs and land.
Even as he puts up a spirited fight to ensure the third liberation succeeds, Raila is facing a fresh rebellion in his Nyanza backyard as rebel lawmakers consider forming of a ‘liberation group’ to tame his influence.
The rebel politicians are said to be keen to 'liberate' Nyanza from Raila’s domination. Bondo MP Gideon Ochanda and his Lang’ata counterpart MP Phelix Odiwuor, popularly known as , Jalang’o, once strong supporters of Raila, are now with Ruto.
Sasia said Raila is one man who thrives under resistance, and he likes it when the regime stands firm.
“We must all accept that he garnered almost 50 per cent of the presidential votes, which literally means he has half of Kenya on his side. You cannot wish away such a person, he will easily drag the country into political chaos and destabilise the economy.”
Sasia said leadership is about making sacrifices, adding that the President should swallow his pride and agree to listen to grievances of the opposition.
“The President should not listen to the hardliners who are fear for their political existence, he should instead put Kenya first. We have seen our security systems struggle to contain past demonstrations, we can't continue banking on the same.”
Political commentator Joseph Mutua said Raila knows that Ruto is not to blame for some of the concerns he has raised.
“For instance, the current drought and famine has contributed a lot to the high cost of living. Again, he knew the price of a 2kg packet of maize flour had gone up to Sh230 during his handshake with then-president Uhuru Kenyatta. This happened at time when the subsidies had not been removed,” he explained.
Mutua added that in previous years, many leaders rallied behind Raila and religiously supported his political roadmap.
“This is no longer the case. The notable figures were governors Anyang Nyong'o, James Orengo and Simba Arati,” he said.
He said the three governors taken a low profile because they hold positions that required him to work closely with the government of day.
He added that second liberators may no longer have energy and momentum to fight the government of the day from the trenches.
(Edited by V. Graham)