Raila in new crisis as mass protest approaches

Apart from mass defections — including in his Nyanza political bedrock — close Raila associates are angling for government jobs, having been in the cold for a decade.

Raila's troops only briefly tasted government power when he served as Prime Minister between 2008 and 2013.

In his countrywide anti-Ruto rallies, several governors, including those elected on his ODM party, have either snubbed the meetings or declared opposition to the ongoing protests.

In Mombasa at the weekend, former Mombasa governor and close Raila ally Hassan Joho skipped the rally. 

On Monday, Kilifi Governor Gideon Mung'aro also skipped the meetings in the county. 

“Definitely, the weight of the rallies or protests has been dented because the big figures that we have seen with him for years are not there with him now,” political observer Martin Andati said.

The continued absence of once Azimio luminaries from Raila’s rallies has triggered alarm bells in his camp ahead of the planned March 20 street protests.

Raila announced the protests after months of build-up rallies to push the President to succumb to their demands.

The ODM boss has been banking on the governors and other county leaders to lead the charge at the grassroots level in his political war with Ruto.

Some are, however, not playing ball. 

“I recognise the government and we will continue engaging the national government for the sake of developing our region,” Kisumu Senator Tom Ojienda said during a rally in Kisumu last Sunday, openly defying Raila who has declared as "illegitimate" Ruto’s presidency.

Senator Ojienda is among tens of politicians from Nyanza region who have openly declared support for President Ruto.

Others include MPs Gideon Ochanda (Bondo), Elisha Odhiambo (Gem), Mark Nyamita (Uriri), Caroli Omondi (Suba South), Shakeel Shabir (Kisumu East, Independent), Felix Odiwuor alias Jalang’o (Lang’ata), Paul Abuor (Rongo) and John Owino (Awendo).

Former governors Evans Kidero, Jack Ranguma and Okoth Obado, and former senators Fred Outa and Rose Nyamunga have also defected to Ruto's UDA camp.

Other politicians from the region opposing Raila are ex-MPs Martin Ogindo, Nicholas Gumbo, Omondi Anyanga, Jared Kopiyo, Ken Nyagudi, Aloo Ogeka, Ochieng Daima, and Sylvance Osele.

Pundits say former governors and MPs are desperate for survival after losing in last year's elections.

The lot has skipped all the rallies safe for Owino, who attended Saturday’s event in Migori.

In the past, it was unheard of for any leader from Luo Nyanza to politically go against Raila or show open defiance.

In what points to rebellion within Azimio, Raila’s recent countrywide anti-government rallies – People’s Barazas – have been skipped by several high-flying politicians.

Joho, the ODM deputy party leader, has snubbed all post-election rallies Raila has held since December last year.

Former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth, Cotu boss Francis Atwoli, former Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu and Kanu chairman Gideon Moi, who campaigned with Raila across the country, are among Azimio bigwigs who have given the rallies a wide berth.

In fact, Atwoli has publicly met Ruto at State House and declared support for his administration.

Busia Governor Paul Otuoma and his Machakos counterpart Wavinya Ndeti were a no-show during the opposition rallies in their counties.

Governors George Natembeya (Trans Nzoia), Amos Nyaribo (Nyamira), Wilber Otichilo (Vihiga) and Joseph ole Lenku (Kajiado), all affiliated with Azimio, have also snubbed the meetings.

When Raila was at Narok on Saturday, Lenku, an ODM governor, was a no-show. Instead, he has been accompanying President Ruto for prayer services within the Maa counties.

During a meeting in Naivasha two weeks ago, governors resolved to lead the charge at the grassroots in an effort to pile pressure on Ruto to fulfil his campaign promises.

University don Herman Manyora said Raila’s decision to directly engage the masses has diffused the ‘impact of the few leaders’ skipping the events.

“Some of these current and former governors want to survive. That is why they are keen to work or be seen to be working with the government. They do not have much impact,” Manyora said.

However, some have signalled collaboration with the Ruto administration, saying that way, they will deliver services to their people.

There are 22 governors and their deputies elected on the Azimio partner party tickets across the country.

However, some of Raila’s troops downplayed the big names skipping the events.

“In Raila’s meeting you don’t need to spend, we don’t give people allowances for attending meetings unlike theirs where they ferry people in buses,” Vihiga Senator Godfrey Osotsi said.

Osotsi put a brave face explaining that Azimio’s push is hinged on the people and not the leaders.

“Baba decided to go to the people directly that is why he is engaging people in People’s Baraza. It is not about leaders, it is about the people. No one is forcing leaders to attend those barazas,” Osotsi said.