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JAVAS BIGAMBO: Raila can't beat Ruto in Parliament

Will all members of Azimio continue being members of battalion or will some loosen up like the other nine with time?

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by LUKE AWICH

News25 February 2023 - 02:38
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In Summary


  • So far the government has the numbers.
  • Best course of action for the President is to create national platform for dialogue.
Governance expert Javas Bigambo.

To the extent that members of his coalition will be keen to heed the calls of Raila Odinga to remain vigilant and push the government to the wall, it will depend on what kind of cards the government of President William and his representation in Parliament are likely to play to outmanoeuvre the Raila coalition.

The issue is, will all the members of Azimio continue being members of the battalion or will some of them loosen up like the other nine, with time?

Some may want to embrace the issue of national good because Raila may want them to take opposing positions against any motion by government.

So far the government has the numbers, which means less likelihood that government interests or bills may be guillotined by the Raila side.

It will depend on the external circumstances that exist beyond the control of Raila Odinga and William Ruto. These circumstances include the value of the shilling against the dollar, hence the issue of inflation which affects the cost of living.

If the cost of the living continues to skyrocket and the value of the shilling nosedives, and the effects of the climate change like drought and famine continue to ravage, and the government does not have quick interventions, then it will put Raila still on the track of fighting the government.

If the cost of living can be mitigated, subsidies reduce the cost of fuel, and the cost of farm produce will be down, then supporters of Raila will be weakened.

They will be ready to engage in businesses than to go to the streets for purposes of confronting the government.

For Raila, it depends on gravitation of circumstances beyond government and the President's control.

But then the question arises, even if they were to be in a cooperation of some sort, a meeting of minds between President Ruto and Raila Odinga, will that mitigate the effects of climate change? It won’t.

It means that the best course of action is for the President to create a national platform for engagement to bring in selected national leaders to engage for better good of the nation.

Political analyst spoke to the Star

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