The consequences of the Azimio consultative rallies may not be immediately clear. Kenyans observing the proceedings on live TV and social media are just as unanswered as Kenya Kwanza.
The big question, even for Raila Odinga’s most ardent supporters, is what is the end game? Yet the political necessity has made the events immensely triumphant with staggering attendance and emerging branding.
Meanwhile, the government has kept the police off the opposition venues. Instead, the President and his brigade are responding from the pulpit.
The immediate conclusion was that Raila was setting the ground for a smooth exit by slicing part of President William Ruto’s cake via a record fourth handshake. At face value, this seems to have preoccupied every political player and, undoubtedly, the President’s inner core.
In his predictable form, Dr Ruto has embarked on a hardball bearing proclaiming his unwillingness to entertain conversations around a handshake. His deputy has further jeopardised the situation by daring the former premier to a potentially ruthless duel.
Interestingly, the ever-unpredictable Azimio leader has deployed blended techniques in dealing with the new administration. Firstly, he reigned in his supporters to trust his judgement.
For the first time in the last four general elections, Raila managed to keep half of unsatisfied Kenyans indoors both at the dramatic declaration of presidential election results on August 15, 2022, and when the Supreme Court deployed ridiculous terms that have forever made the majority of memes in Kenya’s post-election ruling.
Secondly, Raila began consolidating his army and held the first public event at Kamukunji grounds before cancelling a parallel Azimio Jamhuri Day celebration.
The events that followed were warm receptions of the president in the former prime minister’s bedrock, including his own home county of Siaya. In his Luo Nyanza itinerary, the head of state was not simply received by four governors but enjoyed even hearty conversations with all cadre of elected leaders without an episode of political downtime. Not even a village idiot concerned themselves with interrupting the President’s engagements.
The third, and perhaps worth unpacking, is the sudden about-turn taken by the Azimio leader with the full backing of his troops. The peculiar format of these consultations has been the team leader’s written agenda, coordinated speech, the fierceness of his co-principals and the incorporation of the 'Bunge la Wananchi' president among the speakers.
In the fullness of time, Azimio has promised Kenyans a complete rotation in the 47 counties culminating in a mega central business district meet and a march to State House. The masses are excited. Leading the agenda are two intricate issues: Economy and governance.
Whether the president needs to be concerned or not, is as incontestable as the sun’s rising and falling.
What will destroy the Kenya Kwanza regime is this: President Ruto ascended to power with a calculated underdog and pro-bottom-of-the-pyramid campaign. He scapegoated the very government he served as second in command for 10 years, disowned his political past aggregating 30 years, and disguised himself in the church.
All this while, he hardly imagined winning the election or at least being inaugurated into office, ceteris paribus. But both events occurred seamlessly. Then in the face of the miracle, the President chose to substitute an all-professional Cabinet with ill-prepared political benefactors.
Fast forward, the actual battle has manifested itself. It is the reconstruction of the economy post the Covid-19 dents and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and navigating the predicted contraction of the global economy by about one per cent in 2023.
The aftershocks of the former two phenomena have been real but yet to be fully accounted for. The next phase of economic meltdown laced with unprecedented scarcity in the path of rising cost of living definitely demands more strategic thoughts than the weaponisation of Kenya’s taxation instruments.
In my view, the Kenya Kwanza regime is caught flat-footed in its early days. More class wars, propaganda and christianisation of our tangible challenges are detrimental to Ruto’s next campaign.
Whatever the ambition of the former prime minister, he is destined for yet another win. He will turn Ruto's own hustlers against the Kenya Kwanza regime. Then the enigma of Kenyan politics may just succeed in setting the conversation fertile for making Ruto a one-term president.
Ruto will have his post-2022 election choices to blame. The heir undisclosed in Azimio must provide more gasoline to keep the heat intense for the sake of Kenya’s change in economic policies. The last two are perhaps the latent consequences of the Azimio campaign.
Governance analyst
