Voter turnout in repeat elections is likely to be disappointing to both politicians, Mutua said.
“People are tired and just want to get on with their lives. Nobody is ready to put aside some money to go back to their polling stations to vote,” he added.
If he loses, Ruto has said he will be grateful for having served as the Deputy President.
“If I will not win in August, I now have grandchildren, I will be satisfied. Few Kenyans have gotten the opportunity to be deputy president. I thank God that I have gotten this far, and I consider it a huge achievement,” Ruto told NTV in June.
However, Ruto is only 55, he can live to fight another day and he has a huge following that he would be expected to nurture.
And the UDA flagbearer would still be very influential as a politician and as the leader of the minority in Parliament.
Raila has 167 MPs, Ruto has 158; 12 are independents, totaling 337. Twelve MPs will be nominated.
Raila has challenged the results of presidential election for the third time in a row.
He first ran in 1997, losing to former President Daniel Moi. In 2007 he lost to Mwai Kibaki. In 2013 and 2017 he lost to Uhuru Kenyatta.
Political commentator Fred Sasia said given Raila’s age, “this petition poses a do-or-die opportunity. It’s a blessing and a curse.
“A blessing if the court annuls the announcement by IEBC. This would offer him an opportunity to dream again. He will have a second and final chance to explain to Kenyans why him,” he said.
Sasia said, however, if the court upholds Ruto’s win, it would virtually be the retirement statement for Raila who has had an illustrious career as fighter for democracy.
“An end the enigma [Raila has been called ‘the enigma’] would never wish to have, but one that he has no control over,” he said.
For President-elect Ruto, Sasia said, a favourable ruling would make history by being the first man to win the presidency on his first try.
“If the court nullifies the election and loses the rerun, he will be the first contender to be a president-elect who failed to ascend to State House. That would be a terrible history to make,” he said.
If Ruto’s election is upheld, the ruling will have implications for Kenyatta who feuded bitterly with Ruto and backed Raila to the hilt.
The President has openly said Raila is the best candidate and Ruto would be a bad choice.
Raila is on record saying President Kenyatta would be an adviser.
“I’m looking forward to his guidance on different matters such as business, diplomacy, and others,” Raila told the BBC in March.
An end the enigma [Raila has been called ‘the enigma’] would never wish to have, but one that he has no control over
Already, Uhuru suffered a humiliating defeat in his Mt Kenya backyard after the region overwhelmingly voted for Ruto and rejected his preferred successor.
Ruto’s UDA wave in Mt Kenya region swept aside key allies of the President. His Kenya Kwanza Alliance took the majority of the positions in the region, with Uhuru’s Jubilee Party winning but a handful.
Defeated allies include former Majority leader in the National Assembly Amos Kimunya who lost his Kipipiri seat. Former Kieni MP Kanini Kega also lost his seat. He is Jubilee’s director.
Jubilee secretary general Jeremiah Kioni was defeated in Ndaragwa.
At one point, Uhuru said he initially considered other politicians as a successor, including ANC’s Musalia Mudavadi, Wiper’s Kalonzo Musyoka and former UN trade and development boss Mukhisa Kituyi.
It was widely reported Raila was initially reluctant to run for president but was persuaded that only he could defeat Ruto.
The Supreme Court ruling will also have implications for the IEBC led by chairman Wafula Chebukati.
Although the election initially was widely praised as transparent and credible, four out of the seven members said the poll was marred with rigging.
The four commissioners alleged that the results verification process was “opaque”, and accused Chebukati of acting unilaterally to declare results the team had not agreed on.
Seven petitions seeking nullification of the results accused Chebukati of violating the law.
“Same person, same tricks. This man (Chebukati) has done the same things across two elections. He is destroying our democratic institution,” senior counsel Pheroze Nowrojee told the judges.
Lawyer Willis Otieno said the problems of the IEBC, and specifically Chebukati, are systemic.
“The court should consider the conduct of the 2nd respondent (Chebukati), Prof Guliye and Mr Molu… Appropriate sanctions need to arise,” he said.
However, the Supreme Court judges raised queries on some of the prayers by the petitioners.
Chief Justice Martha Koome said the IEBC is a constitutional office and there is a constitutional process of removing him from office.
“How do we go about that? Would we be making an order contrary to the Constitution?” she asked.
Lawyer Paul Nyamodi, representing Youth Advocacy Africa, told the judges the IEBC boss appointed himself returning officer of the presidential election through a Gazette notice.
Now he is trying to trick the court into believing that position exists in law, he said.
(Edited by V. Graham)
All eyes are on the Supreme Court as it determines the election petition filed by Azimio flagbearer Raila Odinga challenging President-elect William Ruto’s victory.
Whichever way the seven judges rule, the verdict will have far-reaching implications for the careers of both Raila, 77, and Ruto, 55.
The judges on Monday, September 5, are expected to render a ruling that will, in principle, reflect the will of the people. However they rule, many Kenyans will be angry.
They could also nullify the presidential election and order a rerun, as the court did in 2017.
The ruling will have ramifications for the two politicians, President Uhuru Kenyatta and the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
If Ruto’s victory is upheld, Raila’s active political career would be as good as over, though he could still play the role of elder statesman. Electoral aspirants could seek his blessing, kiss the ring, in effect.
Raila has described the petition as a “do-or-die battle”, saying he will concede and go home if the Supreme Court rules that he lost in a fair election. His side has already made clear they think the election was not credible and allegedly was rigged in Ruto’s favour.
In the run-up to the polls, the former Prime Minister indicated this year’s general election would be his last run for State House.
But if the election is nullified and a rerun ordered, Raila will get a lifeline. The former Prime Minister has come so close in each of the past three elections; a favourable ruling would give him another chance.
Political analyst Joseph Mutua said Raila would be dealt a devastating blow if Ruto’s victory is upheld.
“Going forward, he may not vie for the presidency again, given his age and probably his health,” he said.
In the event of a fresh election in 60 days, Mutua said Raila might win if he plays his cards well.
“He would get another chance to urge supporters to come out in large numbers so he garners 50 per cent plus one of all votes cast to be declared the winner,” he said.
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