The number of Kenyans surviving on relief food could rise to 4.35 million in October after weather experts placed the probability of the short rains failing in the Northeastern region at 65 per cent.
In their latest October-December weather update, the experts said they are sure most of the country will receive below normal rains, which will also begin late.
Most affected is the eastern half of the country going toward Somalia, where the rains will be depressed.
“In particular, elevated chance of drier than average rainfall is expected to continue over the drought affected regions of Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia,” the Dagoretti-Corner-based Igad Climate Predictions and Application Centre (Icpac) said.
According to Kenya’s National Drought Management Authority, the drought currently affects 20 counties.
“The number of people in need of assistance is projected to increase to 4.35 million by October 2022 if the short rains season performs below average,” the NDMA said separately in a statement.
On his part, Icpac director Dr Guleid Artan said the short rains contribute 20 to 70 per cent of the regions annual rainfall.
“In Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, we are on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe,” he said.
According to the Icpac forecast, there is a higher chance of delayed onset dates across much of eastern Kenya, while western Kenya will experience a normal to early onset.
“This season’s configuration of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to interact with regional circulation patterns in a way that typically depresses seasonal rainfall in the region,” it said in a statement.
Icpac also warned Kenyans month-to-month variations might occur as the season progresses.
“Spells of heavy rain and above normal rainfall may occur in areas with an increased likelihood of below normal seasonal totals and vice versa,” it said.
In Kenya, Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia and Marsabit counties are in the alarm drought, according to NDMA.
The agency uses a predefined sequence of warning stages, from “normal” to “alert” to “alarm” to “emergency to define the severity of drought.
Thirteen counties are in alert drought phase. They include Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kwale and Kilifi.
The remaining three counties, including Baringo, West Pokot and Lamu are in normal drought phase.
“Acute malnutrition has also been noted across the counties with 884,464 cases of children aged 6-59 months acutely malnourished and 115,725 cases of pregnant or lactating women acutely malnourished and in need of treatment,” NDMA said in a statement.
(edited by Amol Awuor)
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