• IGAD said areas affected by drought in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are expected to receive insufficient rainfall this year.
• ICPAC director Dr Guleid Artan said the October to December season contributes up to 70 per cent of the annual total rainfall, particularly in eastern Kenya.
Image: /JACK OWUOR
The ongoing drought, expected to affect 4.35 million Kenyans by the end of the year, is far from over.
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre on Thursday warned that the October to December 2022 forecast shows it will be drier than average across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa.
This is likely to subject even more Kenyans to food insecurity.
IGAD said areas affected by drought in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are expected to receive insufficient rainfall this year.
These poor conditions are likely to extend to parts of Eritrea, Uganda and Tanzania.
ICPAC director Dr Guleid Artan said the October to December season contributes up to 70 per cent of the annual total rainfall, particularly in eastern Kenya.
“It pains me to be the bearer of bad news, when millions of people in the region have already suffered the longest drought in 40 years. Sadly, our models show with a high degree of confidence that we are entering the fifth consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of Africa,” he said.
"In Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, we are on the brink of an unprecedented humanitarian catastrophe."
IGAD executive secretary Dr Workneh Gebeyehu said, together with FAO and WFP, they last month said 50 million people across the globe are expected to face acute food insecurity this year in seven IGAD countries.
"Today, considering this grim climate forecast, conflicts in the region and in Ukraine and macroeconomic challenges, I solemnly renew our call to national governments, donors, humanitarian and development actors to adopt a no-regret strategy and help us weather the worst of this crisis,” Gebeyehu said.
On September 8 last year, the Kenyan government declared the ongoing drought situation a national disaster, calling for relevant ministries to initiate emergency assistance including water, food distribution and livestock uptake.
This week, Unicef said more than 90 per cent of open water sources in drought-hit areas of Kenya were either depleted or dried up, posing a serious risk of waterborne disease outbreaks.
These water sources include open wells and ponds.
Unicef said the drought has also led to the proliferation of severe malnutrition.
It warned that without urgent intervention and support, children in the Horn of Africa and the vast Sahel region “could die in devastating numbers”.
Unicef said in the last five months, the number of people in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia without reliable access to safe water has risen from 9.5 million to 16.2 million.
The latest bulletin from the National Drought Management Authority showed that at least 4.35 million Kenyans will be in need of food aid by October if the drought crisis continues unabated.
On August 8, Special Programmes CS Margaret Kobia said the number of Kenyans in need of food aid is likely to rise from 4.1 million people to 4.35 million by the end of the year.
NDMA said the situation was worsening faster than was earlier projected.
In their estimation, the drought situation has deteriorated in 20 of the 23 ASAL counties.
These are Isiolo, Mandera, Samburu, Turkana, Wajir, Laikipia, Marsabit, Embu, Garissa, Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Meru, Narok, Nyeri, Tharaka Nithi, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Kwale and Kilifi counties.
The authority attributed the situation to the poor performance of the 2021 long rains, coupled with the previous three failed consecutive seasons.