- The five-day research targeted 6,000 respondents from six constituencies of Mombasa.
- George Dzombo, the lead researcher with the organization, said most of Sonko’s supporters said they will vote for Omar.
The decision by IEBC to bar former Nairobi governor Mike Sonko from contesting in Mombasa will lead to huge voter apathy, an opinion poll has shown.
A poll carried out by Research and Governance Professional Organisation between July 19 and 23 reveals that most Mombasa residents are bitter about the decision to bar Sonko.
The research shows the majority of Sonko’s supporters will vote for former senator Hassan Omar in rebellion against the current administration.
The five-day research targeted 6,000 respondents from six constituencies of Mombasa.
However, only 4,920 respondents were interviewed representing an 82 per cent response rate with a +/- one per cent margin of error.
RGPO placed Omar (UDA) at the top with 51.8 per cent, Abdulswamad Nassir (ODM) at 32.6 per cent and William Kingi (PAA) at 4.2 per cent.
Some 11.4 per cent of the total respondents said they were still undecided.
George Dzombo, the lead researcher, said most of Sonko’s supporters said they will vote for Omar.
Dzombo said the majority of respondents opined that Nassir is Governor Hassan Joho’s project.
“Majority said Abdulswamad Nassir lacks capacity without Joho,” Dzombo said.
However, Nassir has on many occasions said he is the ‘people’s project’ denying the reports that he is being fronted by Joho.
A week ago, Infotrak Research Kenya placed Nassir at 50 per cent, whereas Sonko second at 22 per cent, Omar third at nine per cent and Kingi of Pamoja African Alliance trailing at one per cent.
Dzombo said their research showed that Omar will lead in five out of the six subcounties namely, Changamwe, Kisauni, Nyali, Jomvu and Kisauni.
In Changamwe, Dzombo said, the majority of the voters are from the Kamba community, which is Sonko’s ethnic background.
He said in Kisauni, Omar will lead because of two factors; his choice of running mate, Selina Maitha and because of the current Kisauni MP Ali Mbogo.
Mbogo was Sonko’s running mate.
“In Kisauni, Mbogo enjoys huge support, but because he might miss on the ballot, his supporters said they will vote for Omar,” he said.
He said Omar has also eaten a huge chunk of supporters of Mombasa businessman Suleiman Shahbal, who stepped down in favour of Nassir.
“Selina, who was Shahbal’s running mate, crossed over to UDA and became Omar’s running mate. She moved to that camp with some of Shahbal’s votes,” he said.
In Nyali, Dzombo said Omar will lead because of the sustained campaign by the current MP Mohammed Ali, who is also in UDA.
In Jomvu and Likoni, stiff competition will be witnessed between the two candidates, but Omar will lead with a small margin of not more than five percent, said Dzombo.
However, Nassir will command the lead in Mvita.
(Edited by Tabnacha O)