Presidential candidates Deputy President William Ruto of UDA and Raila Odinga of Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya are leaving nothing to chance.
After extensive countrywide tours, Ruto and Raila are now bombarding their opponent's key support bases, seeking to change opinions and capture the undecided and apathetic.
Some voters have told pollsters they don't intend to vote on August 9, for whatever reason. Apathy, the fix is in, nothing makes a difference, all politicians are the same. They don't like the candidates.
Raila and Ruto want to change that mindset. And while a good number of voters from from the two candidates' bedrocks are expected to stand by their man, some are not so sure. They wouldn't want to say in Ruto or Raila turf that they are not keen on the flagbearers.
The latest opinion survey by Infotrak suggests about 16 per cent, translating to about 3.5 million eligible voters, are yet to make up their minds on who should succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta.
This, in spite of its report that Raila is ahead.
The report says most of the undecideds are in Mombasa, Tana River, Marsabit, Isiolo, Samburu, Nakuru, Narok, Bungoma, Vihiga and Trans Nzoia. There the contenders will go mano a mano.
Political analysts say last-minute campaigning is crucial as it is important in determining who gets the last laugh.
“Kenyans have peculiar habits; they wait until the last minute to decide who they are going to vote for...these revved-up campaigns being mounted by the two favorites are so helpful to them,” lawyer Danstan Omari said.
“The 11th hour campaigns are so crucial and so by Ruto and Raila targeting areas dominated by the other, they are simply proving to us they know Kenyans very well.”
In the hunt for more than five million Rift Valley votes a little more than two weeks to D-Day, Raila made his last minute-pitch in the turf perceived to be Ruto's stronghold.
Ruto relies heavily on his bastion for support in the do-or-die battle. It could decide his political future (at least for five years).
For more than 25 years, he has been rising from a hustler to be second in command.
Omari said whoever will sustain the campaign tempo in remaining days will carry the day.
Suba South MP John Mbadi said he does not foresee a situation where many voters won't turn out. He said he anticipates 70 per cent as Kenyans are yearning for change.
In the 2013 and 2017 polla, Ruto marshaled support for Jubilee against ODM, delivering about three million votes.
The case was no different in the 2007 heated election, when Ruto also rallied behind Raila in his presidential bid by ensuring Rift residents voted as a bloc and to the last man-woman for him.
He also visited Western counties to counter the Raila effect following a split with ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang'ula of Ford Kenya.
Today Raila's popularity in the entire Western and Coast has slipped, when Mudavadi and Wetang'ula shifted to Ruto's camp. Residents also resent the awarding of many direct tickets.
Regional leaders cite what they call the politics of deceit practiced by the ODM leader.
By contrast, Ruto's Kenya Kwanza team camped in Eastern and Coast for whirlwind tours as he also tried to wrest support in the regions seen as Odinga's traditional bases.
Raila toured Turkana, West Pokot and Elgeyo Marakwet before trooping back to Trans Nzoia, Bungoma and Murang’a counties.
On Tuesday, he campaigned in Nakuru, which has a million votes and is seen as another battleground.
The Infotrak survey indicates Ruto is ahead with 48 per cent in the cosmopolitan county in the larger Rift Valley.
Raila comes second with 30 per cent, it indicates. Another 17 per cent of the region's voters appear undecided, hence, the big drive to capture them.
Ruto pitched tent in Kitui, Machakos and Makueni before returning to the Coastal region of Taita Taveta, Kwale, Lamu, Tana River, Malindi, Kilifi and Mombasa. He will campaign in Kajiado and Narok this weekend.
Kamba votes account for 1.6 million, while the Coast has 1.9 million.
Speaking during a rally in Kitui on Tuesday, Ruto urged residents reject the region's old-style voting pattern, which has been synonymous with backing Raila.
“This time round, I am pleading with you, the people of Kambaland. Let us not pay with our lives...let us vote wisely," the DP said.
He added, “The people we are competing with are not visitors to you, they do not have any plan, they will come here and feed you with the usual gimmicks, then go.”
Mbadi said campaigns are all about strategy and the moves they are currently making are tactical and bearing fruits.
“Ruto is currently leading in only six of the counties and his support has shrunk in eight other counties in the region. That is why we are giving more focus them,” he said.
Expressing confidence of victory, Mbadi named Bomet, Kericho, Baringo, Nandi, Elgeyo Marakwet and Uasin Gishu as the only counties that he said account for 2.2 million votes. He said Ruto leads there.
He said some other counties in the region as Nakuru, Turkana, Kajiado and Narok are cosmopolitan and they are going to share 50-50 with Ruto.
“The margin by which we will win is almost certain, Ruto is playing catch-up. We are ahead of them and we attribute this to the choice of running mate, Martha Karua. It was a masterstroke that shoved us way past our rival,” Mbadi said.
The Kenya Kwanza brigade says Ruto is ahead, contrary to some reports and surveys, which they said are financed by rivals.
Nominated Senator Isaac Mwaura said their internal polls show Ruto would score highly, if elections were held today, placing him at 54 per cent.
“If you look at Kakamega, we are at at 40 per cent, in Bungoma 65 per cent, Vihiga 50 per cent and in Ukambani we have 30 percent...so where are these Raila numbers coming from?” he asked.
Kirinyaga Governor Anne Waiguru told a rally in Mwea that Ruto is leading with more than 60 per cent and that Mt Kenya will vote for Ruto to the last person.
Mbadi dismissed her, however, saying they have eaten into Ruto’s former strongholds. “We are currently doing well in Meru, Kirinyaga, Nyeri and Laikipia.”
Ruto, he added, was going to win in Central but not by more than one million votes.
Waiguru said Kenya Kwanza gained its popularity because of its bottom-up economic approach that targets people at lower levels.
She said it is on this basis that UDA will bag majority of the seats in the Central Kenya.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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