The tern swing counties, or battlegrounds, refer to counties that could reasonably be won by either Raila's Azimio la Umoja of Raila or Ruto's Kenya Kwanza.
Analysts say whoever carries the day in swing regions will most likely easily win State House in the August 9 general election. It is Kenya's most competitive and expensive poll.
Already, Ruto and Raila's campaign stops give a snapshot of their campaign strategy to scour for votes in these important regions that could determine the presidential duel.
Since the presidential campaigns window opened on May 29, both main opponents in President Uhuru Kenyatta's succession race have scaled up their campaigns in some of these regions.
They have 4,071,862 registered voters.
In the next 43 days of official campaigns, they will ramp up their activities in Rift Valley, Western and Coast.
A recent Infotrak opinion poll suggested 11 counties are battle grounds for Raila and Ruto as the enters the homestretch.
The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission has released and gazetted the final voters register, escalating the battle for the official numbers. They eliminated dead voters, double registrations and others disqualified for other reasons.
Figures show Nakuru has 1,054,856 registered voters, Bungoma (646,598), Trans Nzoia (398,981), Turkana (238,528), Lamu (81,453) and Kwale (328,253) voters.
Others among the 11 counties are Kajiado with 463,273 registered voters, Narok (398,784), West Pokot (220,026) and Samburu (100,014) votes.
Signifying the emphasis the presidential candidate have the swing regions, Ruto has visited Kajiado six times, while Raila has been there four times in six months.
In Narok, Ruto has made five visits, while Raila has held three major rallies in the county as they battle for the Maasai vote bloc.
Narok and Kajiado together have 862,057 voters with Raila banking on the region to turn the tables on his nemesis, Ruto.
On Thursday, West Pokot Governor John Lonyangapuo, who is also the leader of the Kenya United Party, told the Star regions that have been ignored for a long time will be the 'cornerstone that the builders rejected.
“The presidential contest will largely be determined by how some counties, including my West Pokot, will vote. Now that we have decided to vote for Azimio, our presidential candidate Raila Odinga will win this battle,” the governor said.
The battle is expected to go down to the wire.
Ruto has uplifted his campaign with at least nine choppers.
He has visited Nakuru county at least eight times while Raila has made three tours there.
The county is a highly cosmopolitan region with both Raila and Ruto pushing to share the spoils.
Going by the patterns we are witnessing, it is obviously going to be a tough race as the two candidates intensify campaigns targeting undecided voters
Ruto returned to the county on Monday when he held a closed-door meeting with the residents of Molo.
In Turkana, Ruto has at least once six months, while Raila has there three times.
While Raila has visited Samburu twice, Ruto has been to the county once. Raila returned to the county on Wednesday where he rallied the region to back him.
At the Coast, previously dominated by Raila, Ruto has made 22 trips, while the Azimio flagbearer has made 10 trips.
Raila has made two major Coast tours, visiting Kilifi, Kwale and Taita Taveta twice each, Mombasa thrice and Taita Taveta once.
In Bungoma and Trans Nzoia, Ruto has visited a record 11 times in six months, the latest being lat week.
Overall, Ruto has visited Western Kenya counties 22 times.
IEBC figures show the Western Kenya counties, including Trans Nzoia, have 2,616,929 votes that are up for grabs.
Kanduyi MP Wafula Wamunyinyi saod the region will vote for Raila with more than 80 per cent.
“The Azimio presidential candidate will the whole Western region in a landslide, the DAP-K party leader said.
The politician dismissed Kenya Kwanza leader's ability to spoil the party for Raila in Western, a region that has voted for him overwhelmingly in the last three elections.
Ruto, who is working with Musalia Mudavadi (ANC) and Moses Wetang'ula of Ford Kenya, signed an agreement with them two to deliver at least 70 per cent of the more than 2.6 million votes to Kenya Kwanza.
The latest InfoTrak suggested Raila will lead in 20 counties from Coast, Northern, Lower Eastern, Western, Nyanza and Nairobi with 9.3 million votes.
Raila and his running mate Martha Karua polled 42 per cent against the Ruto-Rigathi Gachagua pair with 38 per cent, overall.
Ruto took the lead in 16 counties from Northern, Mt Kenya and his Rift Valley backyard with a combined vote of 8.4 million votes.
Analysts predicted a voter turnout of 78 per cent of the 22.1 million voters. Any presidential candidate who secures at least 8.63 million votes will be elected president.
Should the election replicate the 2013 general election with 86 per cent, then the winner must garner at least 9.511 million votes.
Things would change if the turnout drops to the average of the 2013 and 2017 polls’ turnout (82 per cent) the winner will have to poll 9.0694 million votes for a first-round win.
Political analyst and university don Alexander Nyamboga said the next election will be decided by swing regions that have more undecided voters, according to recent polls.
He said the next two months will be scenes of gruelling campaigns to woo undecided voters. InfoTrak estimated them at 20 per cent, equivalent to 4.4 million votes.
“Going by the patterns we are witnessing, it is obviously going to be a tough race as the two candidates intensify campaigns targeting undecided voters," Nyamboga said.
The analyst said the presidential campaigns are likely to craft messages appealing to elderly voters after IEBC statistics debunked the much-touted youth tyranny of numbers.
They didn't register in big numbers.
“We are likely to see clear campaign messages aimed at elderly voters with less focus on the youth vote," Nyamboga said.
In the capital Nairobi, Ruto has held at least 13 rallies this year, while Raila has held 10 rallies as the battle intensifies.
A recent Tifa poll indicated Raila leads in city popularity with 50 per cent, while Ruto trails him at 25 per cent. The city, according to IEBC figures, is home to 2, 415, 330 voters.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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