Based on analysis from previous contests, there is an emerging pattern among voters across the country.
The 2013 general election, the first under the 2010 Constitution, was a transitional election with the then incumbent President Mwai Kibaki ineligible to vie having completed his two terms.
According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission records, there were 14.3 million registered voters.
Eight presidential candidates were cleared by the IEBC to vie but the two leading candidates belonged to Jubilee and CORD formations.
The total valid votes cast for the presidential candidates were 12,221,053, in which Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee garnered 6,173,433 (50.5 per cent), while Raila Odinga of Cord got 5,340,546, representing 43.70 per cent.
Musalia Mudavadi of UDF got 483,981 votes (3.96%), Peter Kenneth 72,786, Mohamed Dida 52,848, Martha Karua 43,881, James ole Kiyiapi 40,998, while Paul Muite got 12,580
The two top candidates had a combined tally of 11,513,979 votes, translating to 94.2 per cent of the total valid votes cast.
The rest of the presidential votes cast — 707,074 — were shared among the other six candidates, representing 6.8 per cent. Notably, Mudavadi’s 483,981, representing a rounded off four per cent was more than the other five candidates total of 223,093 (2.8 per cent) combined.
This outcome showed voters have an inclination to vote for a candidate whom they believe had a high chance of winning hence the concentration among the top two.
The running mates of the two top candidates, William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka — tilted the votes heavily in their favour. Besides his Mt Kenya stronghold, Uhuru captured the Rift Valley and Northeastern, while Raila bagged Western, Lower Eastern and Coast regions in addition to Nyanza.
Fast forward, to the 2017 presidential election, there was almost a replica to the 2013 scenario. There were the two top contenders and six other candidates
It was also akin to the 2007 general election, where Kibaki of PNU faced off with Raila of ODM.
The 2017 election was a highly contested election with the incumbent, Uhuru of Jubilee Party, facing off with Raila under the National Super Alliance.
According to the IEBC there were 15,114,622 valid votes cast for the eight presidential candidates.
They polled as follows: Ekuru Aukot 27,311 (0.18%), Mohamed Abduba Dida 38,093 (0.25%) , Cyrus Jirongo 11,705 (0.08%), Japheth Kaluyu 16.482 (0.11%), Uhuru 8,203,290 (54.27%) , Michael Wainaina 13.257 (0.09%), Joseph Nyagah 42,259 (0.28%) and Raila 6,762,224 (44.74%).
Uhuru increased his tally from 50.51 per cent to 54.27 per cent of valid votes, whereas Raila increased his from 43.7 per cent to 44.74 per cent. This was an indication to a large extent that they ring fenced respective strongholds.
The top two leading candidates — Uhuru and Raila — had a combined tally of 99.11 per cent of the total valid ballots, while the other six candidates shared between them less than a per cent (precisely 0.89 per cent) of the valid votes cast.
In terms of regional voter patterns, the 2017 contest was also replica of 2013 and once again showed that voters have a preference to vote for a candidate whom they believe has a high chance of winning hence the concentration among the top two contenders.
Ruto and Kalonzo once again delivered their strongholds almost to a man to the respective bosses, as was the case in 2013.
The presidential election was, however, annulled by the Supreme Court for not complying with the Constitution and the law.
The repeat presidential election in October 2017 could not offer a useful insight voter election pattern because Raila pulled out.
This left Uhuru to run almost against himself, winning with 7,483,895 votes, which was 98.3 of the vote.
Aukot got 21,333, Dida 14, 107, Jirongo 3,832, Kaluyu 8,261, Wainaina 6,007, Nyagah 5,554, while Raila garnered 73,228 despite withdrawing.
The repeat result for Raila Odinga presented a very interesting scenario. Despite having withdrawn from the contest, he marshalled almost 0.96% of the votes cast. His vote tally was higher than the combined tally of 59, 094 belonging to the other loosing six candidates.
This could explain the certain characteristics of the Kenyan voter: They are leader driven, highly indecisive, have preconceived expectations and are likely to cast their ballots in protest.
Without exception, all the candidates’ voter tally marginally decreased. This could be attributed to voter fatigue, and the fact that other elective seats had already been declared in the August 2107 general election.
With August 9 election beckoning, there is likelihood that voter patterns previously assumed shall be shaken. There is split loyalty in Mt Kenya region. The two leading presidential coalition have settled on running mates Martha Karua and Rigathi Gachagua from the vote rich region.
This election will thus be similar to that of 2013 being a transitional one.
Raila will be the Azimio coalition flagbearer in his fifth attempt at the presidency, while second time contestants will Aukot and Kalonzo, although this might change..
The first time contestants include Ruto under UDA party, Jimmy Wanjigi (Safina Party), Murang’a Governor Mwangi wa Iria of Usawa kwa Wote Party, if he is shortlisted, Njeru Kathangu Ford Asili, Walter Mong’are Umoja Summit Party, George Wajackoya.
Going by past trends, the Independent aspirants are unlikely to alter the voting patterns dramatically. They comprise of Peter Mumbika, Justus Juma, Reuben Kigame (not cleared), Dorothy Kemunto, Grita Muthoni, Faith Wairimu, Jonahan Kariara and others. At the time writing this article the clearance of aspirants by IEBC was ongoing and the final list of presidential candidates shall be declared once the nomination window closes on June 6.
The high profile politicians who previously expressed interest in the high seat but have since shelved their ambitions include Mudavadi ( ANC), Baringo Senator Gideon Moi (Kanu), Bungoma Senator Moses Wetang’ula (Ford Kenya) and Governors Wycliffe Oparanya (Kakamega), Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni).
The leading presidential coalition aspirants shall be relying heavily on their respective and those who have participated in previous contests may have a head start but still face stiff completion from newcomers.
Going forward and based on the emerging scenarios there is a likelihood of a run off. The entry of running mates from Mt Kenya makes this a distinct possibility.
However dynamics could change dramatically as happened in the last three weeks since the unveiling of presidential running mates, where front-runners have suddenly found themselves in uncharted territory trying to cover lost ground.
Dr Njau Gitu is an educator who also practices as a governance and leadership adviser.
[email protected]
@GNjauGitu
