DISMAS MOKUA: Raila carries Jubilee failures into elections

Raila Odinga, the Azimio La Umoja One Kenya Alliance presidential flagbearer, has created a Pentagon lookalike structure anchored in a corporate infrastructure that he hopes will secure a victory.

The Pentagon-like structure is made up of regional kingpins who have a track record of success in voter and resource mobilisation, being willing to take a bullet for Raila.

These regional kingpins are trusted lieutenants and allies who have insurable interests in a Raila win. Some are aligning themselves for senior roles in the event he triumphs.

The Raila Pentagon has the face of Kenya and gives voters a sense of ownership and peace of mind.

Raila is alive to the fact that Kenyans pay attention to ethnic nationalism and majoritarian interests.

That is why these regional kingpins are a permanent feature in his national campaign events.

They must reassure their bases that their interests are secure in Raila’s hands.

Raila has, however, given second-term governors and most politicians from Nyanza a wide berth in national campaign events.

He has also picked a number of legislators to support his campaign at the national level.

The second-term governors working with the carefully selected legislators who got direct tickets have set up regional command centres with the sole intention of growing and developing the Raila vote while keeping the competition at bay.

The 2022 presidential election is a politically wicked problem for Raila, which explains why he has to realign resources with second-term governors playing a central role.

Raila’s association with Jubilee has come with mixed fortunes.

Running under the three-legged stool as pontificated upon by Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila has grown to be mellow and compromised his competitive advantage.

He cannot afford to criticise President Uhuru Kenyatta for the high cost of living and insecurity in Kenya. Some no longer see Raila as the people’s defender.

Traditionally, Raila supporters are managing their expectations.

Raila finds himself in the uncomfortable space of carrying Jubilee failures to the next elections.

This gets complicated because he has said times without number that he supports administrative and policy continuity.

To manage the politically wicked problem, Raila is looking at his restructured Pentagon.

The Pentagon must go the extra mile to convince voters that Raila hasn’t dropped the ball.

The political risk analyst spoke to the Star

(Edited by V. Graham)

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