Ruto maintains lead but Raila closing in – Tifa poll

Deputy President William Ruto is still the most preferred presidential candidate but Azimio flagbearer Raila Odinga has narrowed the gap, the latest Tifa poll shows.

The poll by Tifa Research shows 39 per cent of the respondents said they would vote for Ruto for President while 32 per cent preferred Azimio presidential hopeful Raila Odinga.

Tifa said on Thursday the gap between the two top contenders had narrowed since February when it conducted its last poll.

At that time, Tifa  found Ruto the most preferred presidential candidate at 38.7 per cent against Raila’s 27 per cent. Therefore Raila has reduced the gap between them from almost 12 per cent to seven per cent in the last two months.

“The popularity of both DP William Ruto and his political party (UDA) remains almost constant in  Tifa’s several previous surveys, while that of former PM Raila Odinga has continued to increase, though still leaving Ruto with a significant, if not overwhelming, lead,” Tifa said in an analysis attached to its results.

The analysis expressed caution about the possible final outcome because 12 per cent remain undecided about their preferred presidential candidate while 12 per cent declined to respond.

There is also the issue of whether the choice of running mates will make a difference.

“The larger proportion who either indicated they are yet to decide or who declined to answer this question suggests that the actual outcome remains yet to be determined,” Tom Wolf, Tifa's lead researcher, said.

Wolf said 35 per cent of those who were undecided needed to know more about the policies of the candidates (35 per cent), while only four per cent said they were waiting for the running mates to be announced.

Another three per cent indicated they will depend on advice from family, friends,  respected elders or leaders.

“Strangely, perhaps, more than one in 10 declined to answer this question,” Wolf said.

Tifa funded and conducted the survey between April 22 and 26. It contacted 2,033 respondents by telephone. The survey topics focused on issues related to the forthcoming election.

It was conducted in Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.

Telephone interviews were conducted in English and Kiswahili. The poll carried a 2.17  per cent margin of error.

The Tifa report added that the most popular party remains UDA with 34 per cent support, greater than the 26 per cent of ODM, Jubilee and Wiper combined.

ODM was supported by 19 per cent, Jubilee by four per cent and Wiper by three per cent.

However Azimio is the most popular coalition, with 36 per cent  support compared to 33 per cent for Kenya Kwanza. A high 32 per cent is undecided, Tifa said.

"While UDA is more popular than ODM, Jubilee and Wiper combined, Raila’s Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Alliance as a coalition is slightly more popular than Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance," the report read.

"This may reflect the fact that the former incorporates far more political parties than does the latter,” the report added.

The report showed the two contenders are most popular in their home zones: Ruto in Central Rift (70 per  cent) and Raila in Nyanza (56 per cent). Ruto’s second most popular zone is Mt Kenya (53 per cent), whilst Raila’s is Lower Eastern (41 percent).

In Nyanza, Ruto was supported by 21 per cent, in South Rift by 40 per cent, Western 29 per cent, Northern 31 per cent, Nairobi 25 per cent, Lower Eastern 28 per cent and Coast 26 per cent.

At the Coast, Raila was supported by 36 per cent, in Western by 37 per cent, South Rift 37 per cent, Northern 36 per cent, Nairobi 40 per cent and Mt Kenya 18 per cent.

Since Tifa's February survey, President Uhuru Kenyatta has openly declared his support for Raila.

National Assembly Speaker Justin Muturi has jumped to  Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza Alliance despite earlier declaring his own intention to stand for President.

Neither Raila nor Ruto has made public their choice of running mate, despite intense public speculation. 

In the last two months, economic pressures have intensified on ordinary Kenyans with the rising prices and inflation.

“As such, it may be expected that for at least some Kenyans, the campaign promises from all sides are being put under even greater scrutiny as they contemplate the choices they will have the opportunity to make on August 9,” the poll analysis added.

“The period has also witnessed frenetic political party activity as they all sought to identify their candidates for all other five elective positions, in some cases accompanied by considerable acrimony," the poll analysis reported.

(Edited by V. Graham)

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