The Political Parties Act and the ODM Constitution allow the party to broadly use three methods for nomination.
They are consensus, election by delegates and primaries.
Ideally, if the party is going to give direct tickets, it must get all stakeholders to agree on the framework.
For instance, if they are going to give Gladys Wanga a ticket, they must invite her, all other people who want to participate in that election and other key stakeholders.
If everything is done in a fair and transparent manner, there is a very high probability that Raila Odinga’s votes will actually increase.
The reason is that, say, a seat attracts 10 aspirants, they should all sit down in an environment without duress and agree one of their own will fly the flag.
Then it means all other nine aspirants will proactively campaign for the person who has been given the ticket.
Indirectly, they will also be campaigning for Raila.
By the time you decide to run for a political office, it means you have a certain base. You have a group of people who support you.
So, if you all agree and speak with one voice, there is a very high chance that voter turnout will very high.
On the other hand, if supporters of a particular candidate feel their preferred choice has been given a raw deal, there is a very high probability of voter apathy and low turnout.
This is the reason Deputy President William Ruto and Musalia Mudavadi cut a deal with Cleophas Malala and Boni Khalwale.
They ensured Khalwale and Malala spoke on camera and requested their supporters to align with the new development.
But you realise that for Wanga, the only person who spoke was the party leader. The others were not given the opportunity to speak so they could convince their own supporters that everyone agrees and everything is perfect.
So, you will increase voter turnout if you get a consensus candidate in a manner whereby all stakeholders including aspirants have been consulted and the methodology is acceptable to all.
That will help a presidential candidate.
The Nairobi-based political risk analyst spoke to the Star
(Edited by V. Graham)
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