JAVAS BIGAMBO: Raila has reduced chances without Kalonzo

Even without Kalonzo Musyoka, ODM leader Raila Odinga still stands a chance though it will be reduced.

But being joined by Kalonzo helps to consolidate the Kamba vote.

Charity Ngilu can bring in as many votes as Kivutha Kibwana and Alfred Mutua combined.

But Kalonzo helps to bring the traditional Kamba vote loyal to him and spread across the country. It is not limited to the three governors' counties.

For instance, Mutua might not have huge sway in Makueni but Kalonzo, because of his stature and profile, would bring that vote.

Raila going to the ballot without Kalonzo risks splitting the Kamba vote and that split is something he should seriously avoid if he wants to be nearly sure of his chances.

If Kalonzo goes it alone, hoping he can reduce the chances of Raila and Deputy President William Ruto from getting 50 plus 1, he will be deeply misguided.

Even if he [Kalonzo] were to get a running mate from Central, it might be a replica of the Mudavadi situation in 2013 when Jeremiah Kioni was the running mate. He didn't bring any votes because Central Kenya will be divided down the middle between Raila and Ruto.

Kalonzo might then be misguided and purchase a serious ticket to oblivion.

If he joins Ruto, he may easily become the fourth in the pecking order, if not the fifth.

Ruto will choose a running mate from Central. Then there's Musalia Mudavadi, Moses Wetang'ula, then Kalonzo. That they were the first to arrive in terms of pecking order and appreciation means they will be appreciated more than Kalonzo.

It will leave a very bad taste in his mouth if he were to join Ruto.

If Kalonzo were to join Raila, going by the Tuesday statement, Kalonzo seems not well acquainted with  seriousness.

When he is said to be hanging on to the defunct Nasa, it is like a grown up man laying perpetual claim to the tits of his mother just because he suckled them once.

It is important for Kalonzo to appreciate  the Nasa contract is no longer active and he had better  come up with serious negotiations.

The governance expert spoke to the Star

(Edited by V. Graham)

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