• Stella Aura, director of meteorological services, says the country is expected to experience a normal rainfall onset with fair distribution over the areas expected to receive near to above average rainfall and poor distribution in the ASAL region.
• The March to May period is the major rainfall season over most of Kenya and much of equatorial Eastern Africa.
Image: WILFRED NYANGARESI
The long rains are expected to start this month in parts of the country and continue until June.
However, the peak will be in April for most regions except over the Coastal Strip where the peak is expected in May.
This is according to the March-April-May 2022 weather outlook released on Tuesday by the Kenya Metrological Department.
Met indicated there will be enhanced rainfall in many parts of the country but some few areas will have near average rainfall.
The outlook further showed that the country is expected to experience a normal rainfall onset with fair distribution over the areas expected to receive near to above average rainfall and poor distribution in the ASAL region.
Stella Aura, director of Meteorological services said the March to May period is the major rainfall season over most of Kenya and much of equatorial Eastern Africa.
She said the highest seasonal rainfall amounts (greater than 300mm) are normally recorded over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Central and South Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley (including Nairobi County) and the Coastal Strip.
These include Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, West Pokot, Laikipia.
Others are Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Nairobi, Mombasa, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties.
Aura said the forecast is based on the prevailing and the expected evolution of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies over the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans as well as the Synoptic, Mesoscale and local factors that affect the climate of Kenya.
“These factors were assessed using various tools including ocean-atmosphere models, statistical models, satellite derived information and expert interpretation," Sura said.
"The global drivers considered included the Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole , negative El Nino Southern Oscillation, Quasi Biennial Oscillation and Madden-Julian Oscillation."
Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, Nandi, West Pokot, Laikipia, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma and Busia counties are likely to experience near to above normal rains for the season.
The outlook showed that Northwestern Counties of Turkana, Samburu, Western parts of Marsabit are likely to be near to above the long-term average amounts for the season.
The Highlands East of the Rift Valley Counties of Nyandarua, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang'a, Kiambu, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, and Nairobi will receive near to slightly above the long-term average amounts for the season.
Northeast counties of Wajir, Garissa, Mandera, Eastern Marsabit and parts Isiolo, Coastal Strip (Mombasa, parts of Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale counties) are expected to receive normal rains for the season.
Southeastern Lowland counties of Kajiado, Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, parts of Tana River and Taita Taveta will receive near to slightly above the long-term average amounts of rain for the season.