President Uhuru Kenyatta and ODM leader Raila Odinga have rolled out an elaborate plan to turn the tables on Deputy President William Ruto in the State House race.
Recent opinion polls have suggested Ruto remains ahead in the presidential contest.
This means Uhuru and Raila have only 170 days to reverse the trend favouring the DP who has publicly dared the President to a duel.
As part of the strategy, both Uhuru and Raila have planned a series of activities aimed at eating into the DP’s support and consolidating their strongholds.
Subduing Ruto in Mt Kenya as well as getting Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and the entire One Kenya Alliance into Azimio La Umoja is part of the plan.
Next week, Uhuru is scheduled to convene a big meeting at the Sagana State Lodge as part of the scheme to diminish Ruto's influence in Central.
The Sagana III meeting will be attended by Mt Kenya politicians, businessmen, professionals and opinion leaders.
Uhuru is expected to explain the genesis and development of his falling out with Ruto.
In the same week — on 25 and 26 February— the President will chair the Jubilee Party National Delegates Convention that will eventually endorse Raila as the Azimio La Umoja joint presidential candidate.
Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni said Sagana III will help consolidate Mt Kenya behind Raila.
He dismissed Ruto’s forays to the region, saying they were working towards a 60-40 split between Raila and Ruto, respectively, in the long run.
“In line with my call that the country needs to fix its politics first before dealing with the other issues tied to it, we believe Sagana III will improve these efforts,” Kioni told the Star.
The other plan is to have Kalonzo board the Azimio train before March.
Kalonzo has himself started to prepare his base for an imminent political deal and on Thursday hinted of about the coalition.
Ukambani has largely remained behind Kalonzo, despite major realignments in the region.
Only in Lower Eastern do the 'undecideds' amount to double-digits (perhaps a reflection of the uncertainty over Kalonzo’s eventual decision as to whether he will contest)
ODM chairman John Mbadi alluded to this in an earlier interview, saying the Wiper leader’s declaration would give some momentum to whichever side he backs.
“Kalonzo has no less than a million votes from Lower Eastern and you know there is a strong Kamba presence at the Coast. He is someone who should occupy some space,” the National Assembly Minority leader told the Star.
A Tifa poll released on Thursday suggests there are more undecided voters in the three Ukambani counties than the decided voters.
“Only in Lower Eastern do the 'undecideds' amount to double-digits (perhaps a reflection of the uncertainty over Kalonzo’s eventual decision as to whether he will contest),” the pollster said.
The poll showed Ruto has the support of 24 per cent in the region while Raila has 17 per cent. Thirty-one per cent of the residents remain undecided.
On Friday, Narc and the Muungano Party affiliated to Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu and her Makueni counterpart Kivutha Kibwana, respectively, held a joint NDC and resolved to back Raila for the top job.
According to the Tifa poll, Central Kenya still has 20 per cent undecided voters. Another 12 per cent did not respond.
This means as much as 32 per cent of the six million Mt Kenya voters still remain swing votes.
The poll suggested Ruto's support in the region stands at 49 per cent, from 53 per cent reported November last year.
Raila has 16 per cent.
Ruto's camp has lately been persuading Uhuru to avoid engaging in politics and retire in “dignity”.
Some have attributed Ruto's toned down comments on Uhuru to jitters within UDA.
On Friday, Ruto slowed his attacks on Uhuru, saying his competition in August elections was with Raila and not the President.
“We are the ones who voted for President Kenyatta and he is retiring in August. The contest is between us and Raila whom we will send home,” Ruto said.
The DP blamed the media for fanning the perceptions that the succession contest was pitting him against his boss.
“We are planning the government that is coming ahead. That is why we have proposed Sh50 billion for hustlers,” Ruto said, warning the Treasury against further borrowing.
Political pundits agree that Uhuru’s influence cannot be ignored, but others cautioned that it could go either way, a ban or a boon; it's risky in any case.
“If Uhuru gets into the political trenches, especially in Central province, he brings a double box,” Dr Charles Nyambuga, a political commentator from Maseno University, said.
Several Mt Kenya leaders have been calling on Uhuru to give them direction 'as a leader and eminent member of the region', which begs he question if that would sway the vote in favour of Raila.
Prof Macharia Munene, a USIU don, said the impact would depend on the audience.
"If the audience are people who support Uhuru, then the message will be okay. In other places, where there may be questions, it may not resonate well,” Prof Munene said.
But Gatanga MP Nduati Ngugi said the ODM leader stands to gain from Uhuru’s goodwill as people will listen to the President.
“A lot has changed in the region since he gave clear indications. We can only expect that to get better in favour of Raila and the Azimio fraternity,” Nduati said.
If Kalonzo will be in Azimio — since our politics is organised in terms of tribal kingpins— it will mean the Ukambani region would have accepted through the kingpin that they are going to support Raila
Political analyst Philippe Sadjah said Kalonzo would be the tiebreaker, whichever side he takes.
“From the recently released polls, it is scientifically confirmed that Ruto is ahead by 11 per cent. This will change as we have not started politics yet,” he said.
The Chama Cha Uzalendo secretary general pointed out that politics will start after coalition agreements have been deposited with the Registrar of Political Parties.
He said that after the agreements are reached and ratified, everyone's mindset will turn towards the two major political formations.
“If Kalonzo will be in Azimio — since our politics is organised in terms of tribal kingpins— it will mean the Ukambani region would have accepted through the kingpin that they are going to support Raila,” he told the Star on Friday.
“Two million votes is not a perception that you can ignore. He is a tiebreaker when it comes to both sides. If he backs Ruto, it would mean Azimio would have lost two million votes,” Sadjah restated.
He said the Azimio team, therefore, must ensue they get Kalonzo by their side if they are to avoid a rerun.
But Kimilili MP Didmus Barasa, a key Ruto ally, dismissed the analogy saying, “Everybody knows that he Kamba nation will be split half-half between Raila and William.”
The lawmaker said if Kalonzo were to run, the UDA side would “struggle to get even 20 per cent.
“Now that he is not, Kenya Kwanza will be guaranteed of a minimum half vote of the Kamba nation. When you include Upper Eastern, we would be doing 60 per cent.
“Eastern is our stronghold. Kalonzo running would have been a blow. His support for Raila would be a blessing to us,” Barasa said.
Tifa lead researcher Tom Wolf, in his analysis of the just-released poll, said much as the proportion of undecideds has declined, the category of potential voters still hold "the balance of power".
The outcomes, he said, would depend on whether they would turn out and vote on August 9.
(Edited by V. Graham)
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