It is not surprising that opinion polls are putting Deputy President William Ruto ahead of ODM leader Raila Odinga in the presidential race.
We must remember that Ruto has been campaigning all along. Since the Jubilee administration started its second term after the 2017 elections, the Deputy President has been on the campaign trail visiting all corners of the republic.
During that period, Raila has not been selling his candidature.
Another reason why Ruto is ahead is because the Deputy President now has his party, the United Democratic Alliance. Ruto has been popularising this party in all his rallies. The party has turned out to be among the most popular and this has improved Ruto’s ratings.
Nonetheless, Raila still has sufficient time to turn the tables on Ruto. We must also remember that Ruto has been ahead in the opinion polls but Baba has been closing the gap as we head to the general election.
This means he has chances of overtaking the Deputy President before Kenyans go to the ballot.
We also must remember that Raila is currently working on coalitionsthat will give him more votes. Most of the parties supporting Azimio La Umoja are backing Raila’s candidature.
These parties are holding their National Delegates Congress meetings and endorsing Raila for the top seat. The latest is Narc, which overwhelmingly endorsed Raila’s candidature.
There are more parties which have lined up such meetings and they will rally behind the former Prime Minister. These endorsements will certainly increase Raila’s popularity in the remaining months and this will come out clearly in opinion polls before the election.
It is also important to note that President Uhuru Kenyatta is just about to endorse his handshake partner. The power of the incumbent in endorsements will play out when Uhuru will publicly ask Kenyans to vote for Raila.
Uhuru has already convened a meeting of Mt Kenya leaders at Sagana State Lodge in Nyeri county, known as Sagana III. The head of state is expected to rally his vote-rich backyard behind Raila. This endorsement is likely to have significant impact Raila's ratings.
Political analyst Daniel Orogo spoke to the Star
(Edited by V. Graham)
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