Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi has three political options in this election.
One is to stick with the One Kenya Alliance to the end — August 9.
The second option is to join forces with the ODM and Jubilee Alliance, while the third alternative is to join Deputy President William Ruto’s UDA.
Abandoning Oka is Mudavadi’s best bet for 2022 success.
The dilemma he faces is two-fold. First, Oka does not guarantee that it can take significantly large numbers of Raila or Ruto’s vote to force a runoff after the August 9 polls.
Second, remaining in Oka will make his presidential candidature moot because Kenyan elections are synonymous with waves.
The 2022 presidential election is shaping up to be a massive wave toward either Raila or Ruto.
Oka will end up being irrelevant in such a dispensation, finishing a poor and distant third to the two main political players.
In addition to this, the Kalonzo factor also makes Mudavadi’s choices more problematic.
Remaining in Oka without Kalonzo is political suicide because the bargaining power of the alliance to the two main political players without both is less appealing.
Mudavadi also faces the chasm between his personal ambition to get a major political portfolio as a running mate in Ruto’s UDA and the reality on the ground in Luhya nation.
Bukhungu II showed the Luhya nation is swaying towards Raila, as per previous presidential elections.
Ruto remains a hard sell in Western. Moving to UDA will leave Mudavadi exposed and alone, with most of his followers flocking to Raila’s camp.
It will degenerate into Mudavadi’s 2013 political nightmare all over again. It will be a crushing defeat to his political credibility.
For Mudavadi, aligning with Raila will be eating a humble pie and a tough political gambit to swallow.
However, it will keep him politically relevant in a post-election division of power should Raila win the presidency.
It will also place him in pole position to take over as the frontrunner in a post-Raila political dispensation, if or when the Building Bridges Initiative is resurrected.
However, his challenge with joining Raila is the plethora of political interests the ODM leader will need to satisfy.
Mudavadi is just one among a numerous chain of vested political players angling for pole position in a new government.
As is rumored in the press, and confirmed by Ruto in Mumias last week, Mudavadi is more attracted to an alliance with Ruto.
This is because the pool of political players angling for the pole position in the Ruto wing of UDA is smaller compared to those in the ODM/Jubilee mega handshake alliance.
Mudavadi hopes that joining Ruto will — at a minimum — guarantee him the position of deputy president.
On his part, Ruto is keen to get Mudavadi in his camp to siphon off Raila’s core Luhya vote. He feels confident in his supremacy in the Rift Valley and Mt Kenya region.
Lastly, 2022 comes with multiple dilemmas for Mudavadi. Apart from Kalonzo, he is the other most sought-after player by Raila and Ruto.
If Mudavadi could decisively guarantee to lock up the Luhya vote and deny either Raila or Ruto some part of their core vote in Nyanza or Mt Kenya, he might be in a stronger position politically.
However, this is looking highly unlikely with every passing day.
The Kenyan political landscape is shaping up as a two-horse race and this perception is fast becoming reality.
Where Mudavadi sets foot will determine his standing and legacy as a bulwark of the Luhya nation voting constituency.
Abandoning Oka is his best bet for 2022 success.
Prof Monda teaches political science, international relations, and American government at the City University of New York (York College), New York, US. [email protected] @dmonda1
