New poll: Raila and Ruto locked in dead heat

Deputy President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga are neck-and-neck in the 2022 presidential contest, a new poll suggests, with the former Prime Minister having a narrow lead.

The poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting released on Monday indicates Raila has significantly surged forward in recent weeks while Ruto's popularity has been declining.

According to the poll, if the elections were held today, Raila would lead at 33 per cent followed closely by Ruto, also at 33 per cent, a matter of decimal points. 

However, Raila will be unable to win the contest in the first round as his support falls short of the simple majority that he needs to win the presidential contest outright.

Twenty-one per cent of Kenyans remain undecided, while seven percent declined to answer when asked their preference.

The survey was conducted between September 17 and December 21, days after Raila's big Nairobi rally where he officially declared his presidential bid.

Infotrak conducted interviews through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (Cati). The overall survey targeted 1,600 respondents who were 18 years and above. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.45 per cent.

The poll indicates that only one per cent of Kenyans said they would vote for both ANC boss Musalia Mudavadi or his Wiper counterpart Kalonzo Musyoka.

According to the poll, Ruto's popularity has been dropping gradually in the last one year as that of Raila has been shooting up

Ruto's popularity in December last year stood at 44 per cent, which then declined to 34 per cent in November 2021 and then 32 per cent in December 2021, the pollster said. 

Raila's approval, on the other hand, was at 13 per cent in December 2020 but shot to 25 per cent in November 2021 and then climbed to 33 per cent after the Azimio event at Kasarani on December 10.

In its analysis, Infotrak said Ruto had lost some support in at least five of the former eight provinces in the last one month. 

According to the poll, Ruto has lost support in Northeastern (11 per cent), Coast (four per cent), Rift Valley (four per cent), Nyanza (three per cent) and Central (three per cent).

Ruto has only gained in Nairobi (eight per cent) and Eastern (two per cent). He has not gained any support in Western.

Raila, on the other hand, has gained in all the defunct provinces except Nairobi, where he has lost by one per cent.

The poll shows that Raila's support at the Coast has surged by 21 per cent over the last one month.

His support in Eastern has increased by 10 per cent, Rift Valley (nine per cent), Nyanza (eight per cent), Western (seven per cent), Northeastern (five per cent) and Central (four per cent).

Overall, however, the poll suggests Raila and Ruto would each win in four of the former provinces.

Raila would win in Nyanza (57 per cent), Coast (48 per cent), Northeastern (33 percent) and Western (38 per cent).

The survey indicates the former Prime Minister would get 29 per cent in Eastern, 28 per cent in Nairobi, 26 per cent in the Rift Valley and 16 per cent in Central.

Ruto, the survey indicates,would win in the Rift Valley (42 per cent), Central (42 per cent), Eastern (39 per cent) and Nairobi (32 per cent).

In Northeastern, the survey suggests, Ruto would get 25 per cent, at the  Coast 24 per cent, in Western 23 per cent and in Nyanza 13 per cent.

However, despite Raila being the apparently preferred candidate, Ruto's UDA party was the most popular at 33 per cent followed by ODM at 32 per cent.

President Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee Party and that of Wiper had support of two per cent of Kenyans.

Twenty-three per cent of Kenyans, however, said they "do not feel closest" to any of the political parties.

By December last year, Jubilee was the most popular party with an approval rating of 37 per cent followed by ODM (14 per cent) and Wiper (two per cent).

But in November 2021, UDA was the most popular with a rating of 29 per cent followed by ODM (22 per cent and then Jubilee (four per cent).

UDA is most popular in Rift Valley (44 per cent), Eastern (42 per cent) and Central (41 per cent). ODM, on the other hand, is most popular in Nyanza (63 per cent), Coast (49 per cent) and Western (36 per cent).

The majority of those who picked UDA as their party of choice are aged 18 to 24 years and they comprised 39 per cent of the respondents. Most respondents who supported ODM are aged 36 to 45 s (37 per cent of the interviewees).

(Edited by V. Graham)