One Kenya Alliance principals face five tough choices in their State House bid as ODM boss Raila Odinga and Deputy William Ruto surge ahead.
The country's second in command is scouring villages for votes, and Raila has ramped up his 2022-related activities, leaving the Oka chiefs lagging behind.
For the last two months, Oka principals Musalia Mudavadi (ANC), Kalonzo Musyoka (Wiper), Gideon Moi (Kanu) and Moses Wetang'ula (Ford Kenya) have only held 10 campaign events.
The events largely centred in Western Kenya, Taita Taveta, some parts of Rift Valley and Central Kenya. They have also been attending church services.
Critics and analysts say the Oka partners are walking on thin ice as their options diminish.
The alliance was initially touted as the third force that would have reshaped the 2022 presidential battle if they could decide on a presidential ticket and stay together. That hasn't happened.
"Time is really running out for the Oka bosses, and the faster they move to either support DP William Ruto or ODM boss Raila Odinga, the better it would be for them," former Cabinet Minister Franklin Bett said.
However, reports of internal feuds and backstabbing as well suspicions of betrayal are said to have stalled the alliance's take-off.
They could decide to remain united and go all the way to the ballot, run for the seat separately, support Raila as a unit, back Ruto as one entity or support either of the two separately.
It will be very useful for Oka to close shop and then elect either Ruto or Raila ... because we are seeing within Oka itself they are conflicted about which direction to go. It is possible they may not go in one direction as a team
On Thursday, analyst Javas Bigambo said Oka's options are limited, trashing any unity hopes.
“It will be very useful for Oka to close shop and then elect either Ruto or Raila," he told the Star.
He went on, ".... because we are seeing within Oka itself they are conflicted about which direction to go. It is possible they may not go in one direction as a team."
Political commentator Martin Andati said that Oka’s available routes are either sticking together to the end or disintegrating to support the leading candidates.
However, there are concerns that should the four go all the way, they will complicate the arithmetic for frontrunners Ruto and Raila.
There are fears that with the support they command in their bastions, a united Oka will likely deny either of the candidates the magic 50 per cent plus one votes to win the polls in round one.
In both 2013 and 2017, Kalonzo delivered the Ukambani vote bloc to Raila, almost to a man/woman.
The Wiper boss was Raila’s running mate in the two last general elections.
Mudavadi and Wetang'ula also command significant following in their Western backyard, especially in Vihiga, Bungoma and Kakamega counties.
However, the launch of the new Action Democratic Party by some rivals of Musalia and Wetang'ula is seen as part of Raila's plan to penetrate Western without his former allies.
In 2013, analysts say Musalia could have denied President Uhuru Kenyatta and DP Ruto a first round victory had he teamed up with Raila.
The ANC leader got 483,981 votes.
Jubilee garnered 6.17 million votes, surpassing the 50 per cent plus one vote threshold by 8,000 votes.
Makueni MP Dan Maanzo said Raila and Oka chiefs have no option but to unite ahead of the elections if they are keen on succeeding President Uhuru.
“ODM leader Raila Odinga on his own cannot go anywhere. Oka alone cannot go anywhere. They must work together,” he said.
Maanzo is a close confidant of Kalonzo. Kalonzo, Gideon and Wetang'ula have already been endorsed for president by their parties.
ANC is tipped to hold its National Delegates Convention in January to formally nominate Musalia.
Raila had on December 10 declared he will be in the 2022 presidential battle but he awaits formal endorsement by ODM delegates next year.
"Raila is looking weaker without Kalonzo and other Oka principals,” Maanzo said.
The second-term legislator said Raila should have an urgent talk with Oka bosses to have a joint candidate next year.
In their campaigns, the four principals have maintained they will remain united and will field one of them to vie.
Last month, a group of MPs allied to Mudavadi gave the Oka bosses until December 24 to name a presidential flagbearer.
They said they will pull out of the alliance and scout other partners to prepare the ANC boss for the country’s top seat if that demand is not met.
Led by Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, they said they will get Musalia a running mate from outside Oka and urge them to start campaigning and go to the ballot.
“Oka partners should not think we are prisoners in the party, that we cannot engage other people. We are looking for other partners,” Malala has said.
However, insiders have revealed behind the scenes manoeuvres by some of the principals or their allies to take them, either jointly or separately, to Raila or Ruto.
Depending on the strength — number of votes a principal can deliver — their individual backing for either frontrunner will tilt the scales and could lead to first-round victory.
This could also be the case if all the four bosses throw their weight behind Raila or Ruto.
A Ruto endorsement, though remote, would jolt Uhuru's plans to propel Raila as his successor.
Claims have been made that one of the Oka chiefs has been secretly negotiating a deal with Ruto.
However, a joint endorsement of Ruto would be tricky as Gideon is seen to be friendly to Raila; he has signalled he would back him next year.
In his tour of Western Kenya on Thursday, Ruto urged Mudavadi and Wetang'ula to join his UDA camp and support his 2022 bid.
“I want to ask you, my supporters, do you want Mudavadi and Wetang'ula to work with The Hustler or not?” he asked.
The DP has also extended an olive branch to Kalonzo, saying that the former vice president has been misled by Raila in the previous elections.
Any slight support by Oka could potentially hand him victory in 2022.
Should they decide to support Raila under his Azimio La Umoja movement, they will bolster his numbers and make his State House dream — to a large extent - a reality.
Last week, Raila launched the movement, an omnibus coalition akin to Narc that propelled Mwai Kibaki to victory in 2002, essentially opening the door for Oka and other parties to join.
Speaking at the Azimio la Umoja national convention at Kasarani stadium last Friday, Gideon Moi hinted at the Oka leaders teaming up with Raila eventually.
“Let us all consolidate support and then we will team up later because we are partners. We are allied forces. You can trust those who are here and those who are in Oka. Outside that realm is something else,” he said.
(Edited by V. Graham)
